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Reply #25: Proof that the WPE's are output and match E-M [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-03-05 03:29 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. Proof that the WPE's are output and match E-M
Edited on Sun Jul-03-05 04:02 PM by TruthIsAll
Take a look at the input range constraints on partisanship
WPE's:
 -10% to +10%. 
Check the CALCulated partisan WPE's at the bottom. 

See the very wide input partisan alpha range constraint band:
from 0.1 to 9.0?
Now check the output partisanship alphas. 

It must be MAGIC! The optimizer came up with exactly the same
WPE's as E-M supplied. And it also produced the required
alphas. 

How? 

Again, the  MODEL had to satisfy ALL constraints: Bush 51.24%,
partisan precinct response rates, minimum feasible aggregate
alpha (1.154). By the way, the model determined that there was
no feasible solution when I input the E-M aggregate alpha of
1.12 (56/50).
By using old-fashioned trial and error, I incremented
aggregate alpha  until it gave me a minimum feasible solution
at 1.1544.

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER						
7/3/05 4:21 PM						
						
OBJECTIVE:						
Determine partisan K/B (alphas) based on minimum feasible
aggregate K/B (1.1544), Bush 2-party vote (51.24%),  partisan
WPE's and response rates.						
						
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:         
                                         						
1- Response: aggregate (.535);
partisan.53HB,.55B,.52NP,.55K,.56HK                           
                       						
2- Kerry 20% quintile 2-party vote:avg 10%,30%,50%,70%        
                                          						
3- Alpha (K/B):minimum (1.1545)                               
                     						
	
						
VOTE	Mil.	Pct (Input)				
Kerry 	59.027	48.76%				
Bush	62.029	51.24%				
Total	121.056					

POLL	Mil.	Pct				
Kerry 	63.127	52.15%				
Bush	57.929	47.85%				
						
Bush-recorded	51.24%					
						
EXIT POLL RESPONSE (input)						
Aggregate	53.5%	R				
Kerry/Bush	1.1544	alpha				
This is minimum alpha required to satisfy 						
the WPE/partisanship constraints						

PROBABILITY						
Bush vote gain	1.59E-11					
 1 in	62,953,509,332					
Kerry > 50% vote	100.0%					
 1 in	1					
						
PARTISAN ALPHA						
Kerry	1.062					
Bush	1.183					
						
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS						
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90	
						
KERRY WIN%						
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%	
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%	
						
RESPONSE						
Min	55.5%	54.5%	51.5%	54.5%	52.5%	
Max	56.5%	55.5%	52.5%	55.5%	53.5%	
						
ALPHA (K/B)						
Min	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100	
Max	9.000	9.000	9.000	9.000	9.000	
						
WPE						
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
Min	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	
Max	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	
						
						
		OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY				
						
	Vote Percentages			Votes (millions)		
	Poll	Vote	Diff	Poll	Vote	Diff 
Kerry	52.15%	48.76%	-3.39%	63.127	59.027	-4.100
Bush	47.85%	51.24%	3.39%	57.929	62.029	4.100
Diff	4.29%	-2.48%	-6.77%	5.199	-3.002	-8.201
						
Pship	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90	1250
Votes	3.87	40.19	52.30	15.98	8.72	121.056
Pct	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%	100.0%
						
RESP.	56.5%	54.9%	52.0%	54.7%	52.5%	53.5%
Dev	3.0%	1.4%	-1.5%	1.2%	-1.0%	0.0%
						
ALPHA						
K/B	1.503	1.153	1.174	1.098	0.996	1.154
Dev	30.2%	-0.2%	1.7%	-4.9%	-13.7%	0.0%
ln a	0.407	0.142	0.160	0.094	-0.004	0.144

VOTE						
Kerry	0.77	16.07	25.62	9.59	6.98	59.027
Pct	19.9%	40.0%	49.0%	60.0%	80.0%	48.76%
						
Bush	3.10	24.12	26.68	6.39	1.74	62.029
Pct	80.1%	60.0%	51.0%	40.0%	20.0%	51.24%
						
RESPONDERS						
Kerry	0.96	17.30	27.84	10.07	6.96	63.127
Pct	24.9%	43.0%	53.2%	63.0%	79.9%	52.15%
						
Bush	2.91	22.89	24.46	5.91	1.75	57.929
Pct	75.1%	57.0%	46.8%	37.0%	20.1%	47.85%
						
REFUSERS						
Kerry	13.4%	36.3%	44.4%	56.5%	80.2%	44.87%
Bush	86.6%	63.7%	55.6%	43.5%	19.8%	55.13%

VOTE DEVIATION						
Kerry	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01	-4.10
						
WPE						
Calc	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.774%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.774%
Diff	0.00%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
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