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Reply #9: That is correct; K/B = 56/50 as stated by E-M is not feasible (possible) [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-02-05 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. That is correct; K/B = 56/50 as stated by E-M is not feasible (possible)
Edited on Sat Jul-02-05 05:00 PM by TruthIsAll
Kerry/Bush= 1.12=56/50 as a weighted average response rate across ALL partisanship groupings is IMPOSSIBLE (infeasible). There is no way the partisanship WPE constraints can fall out of that.

In other words, given that:
1) Bush got 51.24% of the 2-party vote,
2) WPE for each of the five partisanship groups is given by E-M,
3) 53.5% is the total weighted average response rate,
4) Response rates by partisanship group vary from .53 (High Bush), to .55,.52,.55 to .56 (High Kerry)

then the E-M conclusion that K/B = 56/50 is impossible.

The optimizer converges to a FEASIBLE solution ONLY if ALL constraints are satisfied.

The K/B alpha ratio must be 1.1545 at MINIMUM, which means that for rBr to be even considered an implausible explanation for the discrepancies, then response bias must be reflected by a MINIMUM 57.73/50 ratio of Kerry responders to Bush responders.

But that's not all. There has been no explanation of why there is no measurable uniform bias across all precincts. They vary wildly.

On the other hand, the numbers tell us where the fraud was concentrated - in partisan Bush and competitive precincts, NOT in Kerry strongholds.

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