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Reply #1: The optimizer confirms: Min alpha 1.1545, R=.535 [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-02-05 09:23 AM
Response to Original message
1. The optimizer confirms: Min alpha 1.1545, R=.535
Edited on Sat Jul-02-05 09:45 AM by TruthIsAll
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL						
7/2/05 10:20 AM						
						
OBJECTIVE:						
Determine minimum weighted K/B (alpha) required to satisfy
partisan precinct WPE's and response rates						
						
Precinct Variable Input (Min, Max) Constraints:
1- Response rates: aggregate R:.53HB,.55B,.52NP,.55K,.56HK
2- Kerry 2-party vote:avg 10%,30%,50%,70%,90% 
3- Alpha (K/B): minimum (1.1545) 
4- WPE:-10.0%HB, -6.1%B, -8.5%NP, -5.9%K,0.3%HK

VOTE	Mil.	Pct (Input)				
Kerry 	59.027	48.76%				
Bush	62.029	51.24%				
Total	121.056					

POLL	Mil.	Pct				
Kerry 	63.127	52.15%				
Bush	57.929	47.85%				
						
Bush-recorded	51.24%					
						
EXIT POLL RESPONSE (input)						
Aggregate	53.5%	R				
Kerry/Bush	1.1545	alpha				
This is minimum alpha required to satisfy 						
the WPE/partisanship constraints						

PROBABILITY						
Bush vote gain	1.59E-11					
 1 in	62,953,509,332					
Kerry > 50% vote	100.0%					
 1 in	1					
						
PARTISAN ALPHA						
Kerry	1.062					
Bush	1.184					
						
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS						
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90	
						
KERRY WIN%						
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%	
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%	
						
RESPONSE						
Min	55.9%	54.9%	51.9%	54.9%	52.9%	
Max	56.1%	55.1%	52.1%	55.1%	53.1%	
						
ALPHA (K/B)						
Min	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	
Max	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	
						
WPE						
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	
						
						
		OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY				
						
		Vote Percentages	Votes (millions)	
	Poll	Vote	Diff	Poll	Vote	Diff 
Kerry	52.15%	48.76%	-3.39%	63.127	59.027	-4.100
Bush	47.85%	51.24%	3.39%	57.929	62.029	4.100
Diff	4.29%	-2.48%	-6.77%	5.199	-3.002	-8.201
						
Pship	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	Total/Avg
Prct	40	415	540	165	90	1250
Vote	3.874	40.191	52.296	15.979	8.716	121.056
Pct	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%	100.0%
						
RESP.	56.1%	54.9%	51.9%	54.9%	52.9%	53.5%
Dev	2.6%	1.4%	-1.6%	1.4%	-0.6%	0.0%
						
ALPHA						
K/B	1.505	1.153	1.174	1.098	0.996	1.155
Dev	30.4%	-0.2%	1.6%	-4.9%	-13.7%	0.0%
ln a	0.409	0.142	0.160	0.094	-0.004	0.144

VOTE						
Kerry	0.77	16.06	25.62	9.60	6.98	59.027
Pct	19.8%	40.0%	49.0%	60.1%	80.1%	48.76%
						
Bush	3.11	24.13	26.68	6.38	1.74	62.029
Pct	80.2%	60.0%	51.0%	39.9%	19.9%	51.24%
						
RESPONDERS						
Kerry	0.96	17.29	27.84	10.07	6.97	63.127
Pct	24.8%	43.0%	53.2%	63.0%	79.9%	52.15%
						
Bush	2.91	22.90	24.46	5.91	1.75	57.929
Pct	75.2%	57.0%	46.8%	37.0%	20.1%	47.85%
						
REFUSERS						
Kerry	13.4%	36.3%	44.4%	56.5%	80.2%	44.88%
Bush	86.6%	63.7%	55.6%	43.5%	19.8%	55.12%

VOTE DEVIATION						
Kerry	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01	-4.10
						
WPE						
Calc	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.774%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%	-6.774%
Diff	0.00%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
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