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US Count Votes: new version of Working Paper (Updated June 26, 2005) [View All]

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eomer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-02-05 07:47 AM
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US Count Votes: new version of Working Paper (Updated June 26, 2005)
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US Count Votes has posted a significant revision of their Working Paper, "Patterns of Exit Poll Discrepancies".


The exit polling firm Edison/Mitofsky1 (E/M), and USCV, agree that the historically unprecedented
discrepancy between the exit polls and the reported vote count for the 2004 U.S. Presidential
election cannot be a result of random sampling error.2 This leaves either exit poll error or vote
miscounts as the only two explanations for the exit poll discrepancy.

E/M claimed that the exit poll discrepancy is exclusively a result of within precinct error (WPE)3,
and that the entire WPE observed in 2004 could be explained by a hypothetical exit poll completion
rate of 56% among Kerry voters and 50% among Bush voters (herein referred to as the E/M
hypothetical).4 The E/M hypothetical was widely interpreted by the media and by USCV as a claim
that the 2004 exit poll discrepancy was caused by a pervasive, and on average uniform, shortfall in
Bush voter exit poll response relative to Kerry voter exit poll response that was dubbed the
reluctant Bush response (rBr) hypothesis.5

A recent clarification by E/M indicates that the E/M hypothetical should be interpreted as referring
to hypothetical average (rather than constant average) partisan exit poll response rates.6 In this
interpretation, average precinct partisan response rates may vary widely by reported precinct vote
shares, yet all of the reported WPE could be explained by partisan response rates whose average
across the sample is K=0.56 and B=.50.7 This interpretation of the E/M hypothetical does not
depend on the rBr hypothesis of constant average partisan response rates which was shown by
USCV to be inconsistent with the pattern of the exit poll discrepancy.8

USCV's analysis shows that even if the E/M hypothetical, is interpreted as referring to average,
rather than constant average, partisan exit poll response rates, it is inconsistent with the reported
WPE data. There is no configuration of partisan response rates, however varying across precinct
partisanship categories, with overall averages of K=0.56 and B=0.5 that can produce the reported
values of the actual E/M exit poll data for mean WPE and median WPE.9 Thus, neither a "reluctant
Bush responder" (rBr) hypothesis interpretation nor an overall average interpretation of the E/M
hypothetical is consistent with the WPE pattern shown by the Edison/Mitofsky exit polling data.


Note: sorry if this is a dupe. I was surprised to find an updated version dated almost a week ago and no corresponding thread (that I could find) in this forum. Maybe the document was posted more recently than the date on it would suggest?

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