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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-28-05 11:17 AM
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Edited on Tue Jun-28-05 11:21 AM by TruthIsAll

62.03mm	 Recorded Bush votes
59.03mm	 Recorded Kerry votes
122.3mm	 Total votes

16 states exceeded the MoE in favor of Bush
0  states exceeded the MoE in favor of Kerry
1 in 40:Probability a given state would exceed MoE for Bush
1 in 19 Trillion: Prob. at least 16 states exceed MoE for Bush

22 Eastern Time Zone states
22 EST states deviated to Bush
1 in 4.2 million: Probability 22 EST states deviate to Bush

42 states deviated from exit poll to vote in favor of Bush			
1 in 1.7 million:Probability at least 42 states deviate to

86 touchscreen incidents where Kerry votes switched to Bush
2 touchscreen incidents where Bush votes switched to Kerry			
1 in 79,000,000,000,000,000,000,000: probability 86 to

Recorded Vote				
2.740mm (48.71%)	Kerry			
2.859mm (50.82%)	Bush			

Exit Poll				
2.871 (51.03%)	Kerry
2.711 (48.19%)	Bush

1 in 106:Probability exit poll deviation to recorded vote

40.89%	Dem registration: Touchscreen counties
36.77%	Repub. registration
51.30%	Kerry%

41.92%	Dem. registration: Optiscan counties
38.98%	Repub. registration
42.27%	Kerry%

National Exit Poll: Kerry % at 12:22am	
50.84%	Regional weights (13047 respondents)
50.90%	State exit polls weighted by vote share
0.87%	 Nat Exit Poll MoE (13047 respondents)
National Exit Poll Timeline of Kerry Vote %:	
50.75%	 3:39pm (8349 respondents)
50.77%	 7:33pm (11027 respondents)
50.80%	12:22am (13047 respondents)
47.94%	1:25pm (13660 respondents)

Kerry vote share	
57%	New Voters(13047 respondents)
65%	Percent of Nader 2000 voters for Kerry
54%	New Voters(13660 respondents)
71%	Percent of Nader 2000 voters for Kerry
Kerry share of Female Vote	
Pct	Respondents
58%	8349
53%	11027
54%	13047
51%	13660
Party ID (Dem/ Rep / Ind)	
Pct	Respondents
38/35/27	13047
37/37/26	13660

How Voted in 2000:	
0.87%	U.S. Annual death rate
3.50%	approx. percent of 2000 voters who died

50.456mm:Bush 2000 vote
48.7mm:Approximate Bush 2000 voters still alive
39.82%:Maximum % Bush 2000 voters who could vote in 2004
51.999mm:Gore 2000 vote
49.2mm:Approximate Gore 2000 voters still alive
40.25%:Maximum % Gore 2000 voters who could vote in 2004
13047	Respondents
41%	Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
39%	Gore 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
13660	Respondents
43%	Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote
37%	Gore 2000 voters as a percentage of total vote

National Census	
125.7mm:Estimate of  total 2004 vote
122.3mm:Recorded vote
3.4mm: Difference
0.30%: Census MoE

Exit Poll WPE Analysis by Precinct Partisanship	

6.77%:Aggregate WPE (within precinct error-1250)
1.155:Minimum alpha (57.75 Kerry/ 50 Bush) required to satisfy
53%: Aggregate exit poll response rate

51.24%: Bush 2-party recorded vote
52.15%: Kerry 2-party exit poll
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