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Reply #65: I was not replying specifically to you [View All]

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mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-30-05 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #60
65. I was not replying specifically to you
This is really not my position, but what I am trying to suggest is how it may be plausible. I don't know that the band wagon is a feasible explanation for the phenomena in question (it is tough measuring a null set), I actually think the numbers are true to the responses, but you need to subtract the MoE from the total to get the true value.

The distinction I made is between casual--voting is not important as other things; and apathetic--voting is important, but not important enough to make an informed choice.

I pretty much assumed that you were using new voter, as meaning new to voting in 2004. However, others may not be making that connection, particularly if you look to the original post.

I doubt that there was much of a bandwagon effect to such a degree that it could affect the relative percentages within the exit poll. I think that the support of 2000 voters for each was stable, that new voters (as in voting for the first time ever) went democratic, but were smaller than estimated, and the rest ran in the red direction. I think that Florida 2000 motivated a higher turnout, and those that it motivated may not lean democrat.

You and I may agree that Bush is an idiot, but that does not mean we are in the majority. Afterall, look at how many voted for him in 2000. You and I have heard arguments similar or alike to--"He is the president, the commander in chief, we are at war; and he needs our support", saying he's an idiot is beside the point, and it is not a good means of persuasion to someone who voted for him.

Mike

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