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Reply #40: you are making it weirder than it has to be, I think [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-28-05 02:35 PM
Response to Reply #31
40. you are making it weirder than it has to be, I think
The weighted and unweighted results pretty much agree that Gore voters split 90/10 Kerry and Bush '00 voters split 90/10 Bush. The weighted results trim a bit at the margins, but we aren't talking huge numbers of people either way.

No one is saying that memory problems can't work both ways -- but we are saying that there is lots of evidence from other surveys that people tend systematically to misremember who they voted for. Again, Bush beats Gore in both the 2002 and the 2004 NES (among voters and among all respondents). I'm sure there are Bush voters who remember voting for Gore, Gore voters who remember voting for Bush, non-voters who remember voting for Bush, Gore voters who don't remember voting, every permutation -- but the observable net result is that Bush beats Gore. It makes no sense to ignore that and point to the exit poll result alone.
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