You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #33: It really is not a memory problem [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-28-05 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #31
33. It really is not a memory problem
If I am reading this problem properly, the issue is not with memory but the "looking good" element of one's self esteem. Rather than constructively confront one's indifference to exercising the right to vote, and affirm it, one may lie about it and it costs one nothing--what's the risk of being called out.

All that one does is jump on the winner's band wagon--so it may be unlikely that a non voter in 2000 would affirm voting for Gore, because he lost, but would do so for Bush, particularly if he did it in 2004. Kudos for voting, and kudos for voting for the winner--the ego gets a few strokes.

There is likely some inflation on the Kerry side as well, but the big difference is again neither Gore or Kerry is the previous winner. Here the bandwagon effect would be to proclaim yourself a new voter that was motivated to register and vote because of the candidate. In other words the categories allow for more honesty; if they changed the question to an initial question of if you would have voted in 2000, who would you have voted for; and then followed with the question, it might provide some interesting insight.

Again, I don't think you need to invoke band wagon effect if it is to address the fact that the measure of previous voting preference is not too out of line. I think the question serves a subjective function of comparison, not objective, in that there appears a movement of democratic support in 2000 away from Kerry to Bush, both in the Gore 2000 in Bush's column, and the inflated numbers of previous non voters. It may just reflect the incumbent effect.

I also see the matter as a question contingent only on the previous election, and not having any information potential, and possibly NEP did not see any justification to readjusting the weighting for this particular variable after all other weightings were performed.

Given the preponderance of the different articles addressing the phenomena posted here(including the infamous Q's that you should recall), band wagon effect should be considered as relevant to the problem. The only means to dispute it is to show that there was a lower percentage turnout of Bush support than Kerry support.

Mike
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC