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Reply #15: Myopia strikes again! [View All]

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mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-27-05 06:08 PM
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15. Myopia strikes again!
There are two ways the 43/37 split can occur if one accepts the data that suggests the band wagon effect--either gore voters state that they voted for bush, or that bush supporters that did not vote, say that they voted for bush. If you assume that it is primarily from the second population, then you have no argument. Argument 2 dissappears like morning fog.

The other problem is that a poll is an estimate--you have 3,000 respondants, there is no reason not to suspect that elsewhere in the 121,997,000 odd voters, that you may have missed a few who did not vote in the previous election, and went for Bush, and who are not first time voters (e.g. new voters).

Mike
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