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Naysayer Hobson's Choice: Final NEP or rBr? Take your pick. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-23-05 12:48 AM
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Naysayer Hobson's Choice: Final NEP or rBr? Take your pick.
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Edited on Thu Jun-23-05 01:12 AM by TruthIsAll
Let's continue our discussion of the 43%/37% Bush/Gore
weighting split in the How Voted in 2000 demographic of the
Final National Exit Poll. Bush won the poll (and the vote) by
51-48%.

To review, according to the poll, 43% of all 2004 voters were
former Bush 2000 voters and 37% of 2004 voters were former
Gore voters.

Gore won the popular vote in 2000 by 50.999mm to 50.456
million for Bush.

Some, but not all of you have stipulated to the mathematical
fact that for 43% of 2004 voters to have been Bush 2000 voters
was an impossibility, since 43% of the 122.3 million who voted
in 2004 is 52.59 million. And yet we know that Bush only got
50.456 million votes in 2000.

So now you have a choice:

1) You can argue, against all mathematical logic, that the
final national exit poll was correct; that 43% is a valid
weighting multiplier for Bush and 37% is a valid weighting
multiplier for Kerry. And therefore the Final Exit Poll
correctly matched to the recorded vote count, as reflected by
the 51-48% Bush exit poll win. 

or

2) You can continue to hypothesize the reluctant Bush
responder theory. Of course, by doing so, you must reject the
43%/37% split, since that weighting mix implies that Bush 2000
voters outnumbered Gore 2000 voters by a whopping six percent
margin.

So which is it?

Do you claim that Bush won the final exit poll (13660
respondents) and that the 43%/37% split (although
mathematically impossible) is still a valid weighting mix?

Or do you reject the final exit poll and promote the rBr
hypothesis as a possible explanation for the exit poll
discrepancies? 

You cannot have it both ways. 
Take your pick.

43/37 vs. rBr. 
Impossible vs. implausible.

*******************************************************
HERE ARE THE 13047 AND 13660 HOW VOTED IN 2000 WEIGHTS AND
PERCENTAGES 
 
The maximum possible percentage of Bush 2000 voters who could
have voted in 2004 is 39.82%.

Bush 2000 voters: 50.456 million
Bush 2000 voters still alive = 48.69mm

Total 2004 voters: 122.3 mm.

Maximum Bush 2000 voters as a percentage of Total 2004
voters: Bush 2000/Total 2004 = 48.69/122.3 = 39.82%
The same calculation for Gore voters = 40.25%



Now lets look at the National Exit Poll:

Who did you vote for in 2000?	

SCENARIO I:
13047 respondents: 12:22am
Kerry wins easily- even with an IMPLAUSIBLE 41% Bush/39% Gore
split

	Mix   Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	41%	57%	2%	7.0%	9.7%	0.3%
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%	3.1%	35.5%	0.4%
Bush	41%	90%	10%	0%	36.9%	4.1%	0.0%
Other	3%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				47.38%	51.23%	1.21%

Probability of Bush going from 47.38% (poll) to 50.73%
(vote):  1 in 38,498,885,514

*********************************************

SCENARIO II:
Final Exit Poll (1:25pm)- 13660 respondents:
BUSH WINS, even though 43% is MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE

      MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
NO    17%	45%	54%	1%	7.7%	9.2%	0.2%
Gore  37%	10%	90%	1%	3.7%	33.3%	0.4%
Bush  43%	91%	9%	0%	39.1%	3.9%	0.0%
Other  3%	21%	71%	8%	0.6%	2.1%	0.2%
      100%				51.11%	48.48%	0.78%


***********************************************

PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO III:
Using maximum possible Bush/Gore turnout weightings based on
2000 voters still alive to vote in 2004 (122.3mm total votes),
Kerry wins in a  landslide: 

Kerry	63.89mm (52.24% 
Bush	56.77 (46.42%)
Nader/Other 1.49 (1.22%)


      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.00%	41%	57%	2%	7.0%	9.7%	0.3%
Gore	40.24%	8%	91%	1%	3.2%	36.6%	0.4%
Bush	39.82%	90%	10%	0%	35.8%	4.0%	0.0%
Other	3.00%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				46.42%	52.24%	1.22%
							

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