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WPE and Aggregate Precinct Data Tell Us Where the Election was Stolen... [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-22-05 03:22 PM
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WPE and Aggregate Precinct Data Tell Us Where the Election was Stolen...
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Edited on Wed Jun-22-05 03:39 PM by TruthIsAll
E_M has told is where the election was stolen...

Of the 4.10 million votes which red-shifted from Kerry to
Bush, 3.45 million were in two of the five partisanship
groupings:

Moderate Bush: 1.23 million
Non-partisan : 2.22 million

Only 0.66 million votes were lost in High Bush and moderate
Kerry precincts. High Kerry precincts were virtually
fraud-free.

The optimizer tells us that Kerry won the election by 5.22
million votes. This result is consistent with E-M aggregate
data and the recorded Bush/Kerry 2-party vote, but only after
adjusting alpha from 1.12 to 1.15 in order to satisfy ALL
precinct WPE, partisanship and total exit poll response
constraints:

Kerry: 63.11 million 
Bush: 57.89

This result falls out of the model and is consistent with all
E-M aggregate data and the recorded Bush/Kerry 2-party vote
 

The recorded vote:
Bush 61.99 million
Kerry 59.01


Note the following:

1. E-M (WPE) cannot reproduce the Bush 51.23% (2-party) vote,
given the overall R=53% response rate, alpha = 1.12 (56
Kerry/50 Bush) and the 1250 precinct partisanship aggregate
weightings. 

2. There is NO feasible solution which satisfies precinct
WPE's, weighted average alpha (1.12) and weighted response
rate (53%) constraints.

3. The Minimum alpha required is an implausible 1.15 (57.5/50)

4. The Minimum High Bush precinct alpha is an implausible 1.40
(70/50).

5. High and moderate Kerry precinct alpha = 1.066 (53.5/50) 

6. High and moderate Bush precinct alpha = 1.17. Non-partisan
precinct alpha is the same 1.17.

7. Kerry won exit poll with 52.16%, a 63.1- 57.9mm vote
margin.

8. Bush needed to win 54.9% of the 47% who refused to be
polled, in order to achieve his 51.23% vote.

9. The results match E-M partisanship WPE's to within .01%.

10. The results are based on the limited data provided by E-M.
No other input assumptions were used.

11. Assuming a 1.0% MoE, the odds are 1 in 62,956,149,427
that Bush would go from 47.84% in the poll to 51.23% in the
vote.

**************************************

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/19/05 5:23 PM							
							
OBJECTIVE:							
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive
the  final vote using aggregate exit poll response
data.							
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints: 					
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average 					
2-Kerry 2-party percentage vote 				
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average 					
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)													

	VOTE 	POLL	DEV
Kerry 48.77%	52.16%	-3.39%				
Bush	51.23%	47.84%	3.39%				
Actual Bush	51.23%						
	
Probability: 1 in	62,956,149,427	
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.150						

RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
Max	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90		
Max	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40	1.40		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%		
Min	-10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%		
Max	-10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	52.16%	48.77%	-3.39%		63.11	59.01	-4.10
Bush	47.84%	51.23%	3.39%		57.89	61.99	4.10
							
							
CATEG.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Pct	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
RESP.	51.0%	58.8%	48.5%	48.3%	63.0%		53.0%
Dev	-2.0%	5.8%	-4.5%	-4.7%	10.0%		0.0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.40	1.15	1.17	1.10	1.00		1.150
Dev	21.7%	-0.4%	2.1%	-4.0%	-13.4%		0.0%
ln (A)	0.34	0.14	0.16	0.10	0.00		0.1398

VOTES							
Kerry	25.0%	41.9%	48.7%	56.6%	77.0%		48.77%
Bush	75.0%	58.1%	51.3%	43.4%	23.0%		51.23%
							
POLL 							
Kerry	30.0%	44.9%	53.0%	59.5%	76.9%		52.16%
Bush	70.0%	55.1%	47.0%	40.5%	23.1%		47.84%
							
							
WPE	-10.00%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.00%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.00%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	25.0%	41.9%	48.7%	56.6%	77.0%		48.77%
							
ALPHA	1.40	1.15	1.17	1.10	1.00		1.15
ln(a)	0.34	0.14	0.16	0.10	0.00		0.14
AvgDev	22%	0%	2%	-4%	-13%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	20	244	262	80	57		663
Pct	51.0%	58.8%	48.5%	48.3%	63.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	6	110	139	47	44		345
Pct	30.0%	44.9%	53.0%	59.5%	76.9%		52.16%
Bush	14	134	123	32	13		317
Pct	70.0%	55.1%	47.0%	40.5%	23.1%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	20	171	278	85	33		587
Pct	49.0%	41.2%	51.5%	51.7%	37.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	4	64	124	46	26		264
Pct	19.8%	37.5%	44.7%	53.8%	77.3%		45.09%
Bush	16	107	154	39	8		323
Pct	80.2%	62.5%	55.3%	46.2%	22.7%		54.91%
							
							
TOTAL VOTES							
Kerry	10	174	263	93	69		610
Pct	25.0%	41.9%	48.7%	56.6%	77.0%		48.77%
Bush	30	241	277	72	21		640
Pct	75.0%	58.1%	51.3%	43.4%	23.0%		51.23%
							
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.97	16.83	25.47	9.04	6.71		59.01
Bush	2.90	23.35	26.80	6.93	2.00		61.99
Diff	-1.94	-6.52	-1.34	2.10	4.71		-2.98
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	1.16	18.05	27.69	9.51	6.70		63.11
Bush	2.71	22.12	24.58	6.46	2.01		57.89
Diff	-1.55	-4.07	3.11	3.05	4.68		5.22
							
VOTE DEVIATION							
Kerry 	-0.19	-1.23	-2.22	-0.47	0.01		-4.10
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-50.0%	-16.2%	-2.6%	13.2%	54.1%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-40.0%	-10.1%	5.9%	19.1%	53.8%		4.31%
Diff	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%


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