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Reply #249: one issue is controversial; the other is straightforward [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-23-05 08:17 AM
Response to Reply #235
249. one issue is controversial; the other is straightforward
Whether it is more appropriate to use RV or LV was and is debated.

But if you want to alter a poll's assumptions, you owe it to the polling firm and to your readers to make clear that you have done that.

And, incidentally, when you then ring Monte Carlo changes on your assumptions and declare a 99%+ probability that Kerry will win -- well, you are entitled to your belief, but it is only as good as your assumptions. Personally, I think that is a bad use of P values.

I have no idea what MP quotation you might be referring to, but folks can read his November 3 column and judge for themselves:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/first_impre...

If you mean that MP thought before the election that the polls understated Kerry's chances, I agree with that. To quote from the above:

"The average of the final polls had Bush ahead by just under two points (48.7% to 47.1%).... Obviously, these topics deserve more careful consideration once we have final results, but it is obvious that (a) the incumbent rule did not apply and (b) that the consensus of the national polls was reasonably close to the final result. While the turnout was heavy, it did not conceal any hidden Kerry vote, as I speculated it might. If anything, the polls slightly underestimated Bush's national margin. Why? One big clue should have been the failure of the incumbent rule in 2002...."

It really seems to me that you are so certain that Kerry "did even better" than 51.6-51.8% of the two-party vote because you think your pre-election model proves it.
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