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Reply #226: Breakeven analysis: point of discussion [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-21-05 04:41 AM
Response to Reply #206
226. Breakeven analysis: point of discussion
Edited on Sun Aug-21-05 05:34 AM by TruthIsAll
We can derive a mathematical relationship to calculate what it
would take for Bush and Kerry to tie. Given Kerry's percentage
of Bush 2000 voters (X1), we can determine the percentage of
Gore voters (X2)he needed to tie Bush. Or vice versa.

We hold the Nader and New voter percentages constant.

x1	x2				
K%G	K%B				
94.94%	1.00%				
93.95%	2.00%				
92.96%	3.00%				
91.97%	4.00%				
90.98%	5.00%				
89.99%	6.00%				
89.00%	7.00%				
88.01%	8.00%				
87.02%	9.00%				
86.03%	10.00%				
85.04%	11.00%				
84.05%	12.00%				


Assume Final National Exit Poll percentages, with maximum
weightings based on actual 2000 votes:

Assume Kerry gets:
1) 2% of Bush's 2000 vote, he needs 93.95% of the Gore vote.
					
2000	Pct	K	B	N	Votes
NV	17.31%	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%	21.16
G	40.24%	93.95%	6.05%	0.00%	49.2
B	39.83%	2.00%	98.00%	0.00%	48.7
N	2.62%	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%	3.2
Total	100%	49.81%	49.81%	0.38%	122.26



2) 6% of Bush's 2000 vote, he needs 89.99% of the Gore vote.

2000	Pct	K	B	N	Votes
NV	17.31%	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%	21.16
G	40.24%	89.99%	10.01%	0.00%	49.2
B	39.83%	6.00%	94.00%	0.00%	48.7
N	2.62%	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%	3.2
Total	100%	49.81%	49.81%	0.38%	122.26




3) 8% of Bush's 2000 vote, he needs 88.01% of the Gore vote.

2000	Pct	K	B	N	Votes
NV	17.31%	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%	21.16
G	40.24%	88.01%	11.99%	0.00%	49.2
B	39.83%	8.00%	92.00%	0.00%	48.7
N	2.62%	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%	3.2
Total	100%	49.81%	49.81%	0.38%	122.26


4) 10% of Bush's 2000 vote, he needs 86.03% of the Gore vote
to tie					
2000	Pct	K	B	N	Votes
NV	17.31%	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%	21.16
G	40.24%	86.03%	13.97%	0.00%	49.2
B	39.83%	10.00%	90.00%	0.00%	48.7
N	2.62%	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%	3.2
Total	100%	49.81%	49.81%	0.38%	122.26


5) 12% of Bush's 2000 vote, he needs 84.05% of the Gore vote
to tie					
2000	Pct	K	B	N	Votes
NV	17.31%	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%	21.16
G	40.24%	84.05%	15.95%	0.00%	49.2
B	39.83%	12.00%	88.00%	0.00%	48.7
N	2.62%	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%	3.2
Total	100%	49.81%	49.81%	0.38%	122.26


************************************************************

Derivation of the formula:

	MaxVotes	Pct2004	
G	49.2	40.24%	Gore
B	48.7	39.83%	Bush
N	3.2	2.62%	Nader
Total	101.1	82.69%	
			
NV	21.16	17.31%	New voters
Kerry			
KNV	11.4264	54%	New votes
KN	2.272	71%	Nader votes
KGV	X1*49.2	X1	Gore votes
KBV	X2*48.7	X2	Bush votes
Total	13.6984		+ X1*49.2+ X2*48.7
			
Bush					
BNV	9.522	45%	New votes		
BN	0.672	21%	Nader votes		
BGV	(1-X1)*49.2	1-X1	Gore votes		
BBV	(1-X2)*48.7	1-X2	Bush votes		
Total	10.194		+(1- X1)*49.2+ (1-X2) *48.7		
					
Total Kerry                         = Total Bush					
					
x1*g + x2*b +.54*nv +.71n = (1-x1)*g+ (1-x2)*b + .45*nv +
.21*n					
					
2x1*g  - g  +2x2*b -b +.09*nv + .50*n = 0					
					
g * (2x1-1) + b *(2x2-1) +.09*nv +.50*n =0					
					
49.2 * (2x1-1) + 48.7 *(2x2-1) +.09*21.16 +.50*3.2 =0					
					
98.4*x1 - 49.2+  97.4 * x2  - 48.7 + 1.9044 + 1.60 = 0					
					
98.4*x1 + 97.4*x2 = 49.2 +48.7 -1.9044 - 1.60					
					
98.4*x1 + 97.4*x2 = 94.3956					
					
x1= (94.3956 -97.4x2)/98.4					
					
x1=.9593 -.9898*x2					
					

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