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Reply #206: OTOH AND ANAX: BEFORE YOU START THE MATCH, READ THIS.. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-20-05 05:44 PM
Response to Reply #183
206. OTOH AND ANAX: BEFORE YOU START THE MATCH, READ THIS..
Edited on Sat Aug-20-05 06:44 PM by TruthIsAll
Before proceeding, let's establish some BASIC FACTS RIGHT NOW.
DO NOT start the match without stipulating to it.

The maximum number of Gore and Bush 2000 voters still alive in 2004 are FACTS.

USE THEM.
THESE ARE FACTS.
DO NOT IGNORE THE FACTS.

USE THESE FACTS AS A BASIS FOR THE DISCUSSION AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OR DON'T EVEN BOTHER TO PLAY THE GAME.

By that I mean, we must start with the MAXIMUM weightings:
Bush 39.82% of 122.26 million 2004 voters
Gore 40.25% of 122.26 million 2004 voters

THE FINAL EXIT POLL'S 43% for Bush is ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE.
The 37% for Gore is POSSIBLE, though highly unlikely.

Start from there.
Work with the REAL numbers.
WORK WITH FACTS.
YOU MUST NOT IGNORE THEM.
YOU DO SO AT YOUR PERIL.

OTOH, don't try to split hairs.
UNBLOCK YOUR MIND.
ACCEPT YOUR SAVIOUR.
ACCEPT THE FACTS OF LIFE.
AND DEATH.

THIS WILL BE A FAIR MATCH IF:
YOU ACCEPT THE REALITY OF LIFE AND DEATH.

ONLY BUSH VOTERS STILL ALIVE COULD VOTE IN 2004.
ONLY GORE VOTERS STILL ALIVE COULD VOTE IN 2004.

THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF BUSH 2000 VOTERS STILL ALIVE WAS 48.7
HE GOT 50.456 MILLION VOTES IN 2000.

THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF GORE 2000 VOTERS STILL ALIVE WAS 49.2
HE GOT 50.999 MILLION VOTES IN 2000.

WE ASSUME AS GIVEN THE 0.87% ANNUAL U.S. DEATH RATE.

I HAVE ALREADY GIVEN YOU BOTH A HEAD START WITH ANALYSIS OF WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR BUSH TO WIN BY 3 MILLION VOTES.

YOU CAN ARGUE ABOUT THE COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS OF ASSUMED PARTISANSHIP SWITCHES.

BUT YOU HAD BETTER STIPULATE THIS BEFORE PROCEEDING:
THE APPROXIMATE 1.7MM BUSH 2000 VOTERS WHO DIED BEFORE ELECTION DAY 2004 COULD NOT HAVE VOTED.

I CANNOT BELIEVE WHAT I JUST SAID:
PEOPLE WHO DIE, STAY DEAD.
UNLESS YOU BELIEVE IN INTELLIGENT DESIGN.
AND THE IMMORTALITY OF BUSH VOTERS.

AGREED?

YOU MAY WANT TO BEGIN BY ASSUMING 100% TURNOUT.
FOR BOTH BUSH AND GORE VOTERS.
THAT'S WHAT I DID IN MY POST.

I HOPE YOU WILL REFER TO MY ANALYSIS.
BUT EVEN IF YOU DON'T, IT'S THERE.
IT'S NOT GOING ANYWHERE.

AND I JUST MAY CRUNCH SOME NEW NUMBERS.
JUST IN CASE.


OK?

WHO SERVES FIRST?
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