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Reply #200: the formula is in the post you replied to [View All]

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foo_bar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-20-05 04:32 PM
Response to Reply #159
200. the formula is in the post you replied to
Two Quibbles: the aforementioned rounding error (either my assumption of it or its provision as such), and the N for Nader factor. Nader can be whisked away with more precise constants, or variables where the .71/.21/.08 go (say KV: X3*N, BV: X4*N, NV: (1-(X3+X4)*N)).

Which is why these "what if?" scenarios are invariably chained to unrealistic assumptions: if you model the assumptions found in real life, you need the National Weather Service to solve for X5 through X10. That's where you find the real subcurrents, like partly racist in Florida and a 90% chance of corruption in Ohio.

Look small, national polls are a kaleidoscope. Build a better mousetrap.
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