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Reply #198: slight puzzlement [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-20-05 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #193
198. slight puzzlement
You invite me to this task by asserting that I am way over-thinking, and then propose ten rules of which one is to "keep it really simple"? Hmm. Probably I am in one of my hyper-literal moods.

I'm not quite sure where the "simple" starting place is here, but I can try to "play" it your way.

On point 4, I wonder whether you are seeing more wobble in my statements than I do. I would be comfortable assuming no difference in turnout between returning Bush2K and Gore2K voters, unless otherwise convinced. That being the case, I expect the retrospective question to yield more (reported) Bush2K voters, and a six-point gap seems fine. (I would have to download all the other exit polls to refine that, which I will not do any time soon.)

On point 5, I can't concede that rule if I don't know what it means. If you mean that I shouldn't spin the crazy idea that Gore2K voters would become Bush2K voters, I can't accept, because in the NES 2000-2004 panel study, some demonstrably did -- confirming my expectation from other panel and cross-section studies.

On point 6, ditto. TIA asked the reasonable question (only I think he thought it was rhetorical), whazzup with that 43/37 split? I think false recall is the obvious answer.

I think your point 9 is well put.

I'm fine with point 10. I thought the debate was whether the official vote count plausibly _could_ be right, not whether it _had to_ be right. And obviously people's criteria of plausibility vary, as per your point 9.

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