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Reply #197: Well, I guess we will never see your doodles after all. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-20-05 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #190
197. Well, I guess we will never see your doodles after all.
Edited on Sat Aug-20-05 02:44 PM by TruthIsAll
So that just about ends it. You have lost the debate because you never made the case to begin with.

As far as your snide comments on my pre-election probabilities, I based by numbers on detailed analysis using publicly available data. I had a very clear rationale for making those projections - and did a thorough quantitavive analysis showing all the work.

That is something you have never done. The vast majority of interested DUers will surely agree with me. You have heard from a few of our best to that effect already.

If you look at my projections and probabilities on the election model site, you will see that they are grounded in logic based on factual data and very reasonable assumptions as the Kerry's expected share of the undecided vote.

If you bother to check, you will see that 11 out of the final 18 pre-election polls had Kerry ahead. These are a mix of registered voters and likely voter polls. They were NOT cherry picked. I used registered where available because I felt they were a better indicator due to the massive democratic registration efforts.

Even assuming Kerry was tied with Bush at 47% with 6% undecided on Nov. 1, it was clear that as challenger he would win, since he could reasonably expect 60-75% of the undecided based on all historic precedent. Do the simple math 47+4=51%.

Based on the AVERAGE of very public national polls, I had Kerry winning the popular vote with 51.63% of the two-party vote. The probability based on 18 independent pre-election polls (which is the equivalent of an 18,000 sample) was close to 100%.

In addition, the 5000 trial Monte Carlo simulation of the state exit polls showed that Kerry would win over 330 Electoral votes with 51.80% of the two-party vote with near 100% probability of getting over 270 electoral votes.

Turned out, I was almost exactly right.

And you have the absolute gall to suggest that Bush may have gotten 17% of Gore voters.

You have succeeded in proving to all readers that you are totally disingenuous. You are rich in palaver, short on analysis.

Very short.
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