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Reply #194: I wondered if you meant that study. [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-20-05 01:27 PM
Response to Reply #176
194. I wondered if you meant that study.
It was interesting. I'm not convinced however, for the same reason that I am not, ultimately convinced by my own. IIRC there was a critical variable they failed to include in their model (county size x voting machine type). There have been a number of critiques of the study.

The study I am "citing" regarding machine vendor was my own. I investigated machine vendor across all counties, and had data on party registration for both 00 and 04. I did not find anything significant, so have not reported anything. The only thing I found were machine effects, which, as I have said, do not necessarily convince me. I found greater Bush advantage for Optical Scanning. Hout et al found the same for mid-size counties but an advantage for e-touch in large counties (Broward I think was the greatest). I excluded these for reasons I have given, so the studies are not actually at odds. I think both are flawed.

Regarding Mebane's piece "The Wrong Man is President": you have NOT read it correctly (you have even mis-spelt his name). He does not say Optical scanners were "accurate" in 2000. Look at the table on page 29. It was a detailed and meticulous piece of work investigating just one mechanism by which votes for Gore were lost in 2000. He concluded that precinct-tabulated optical scanned ballots recorded fewer over-votes than any other type of ballot, and that if all the ballots in Florida had been cast and counted this way, Gore would have won Florida. There may well have been other problems with optical scanners in Florida in 2000 (though you do not make it clear about what incidents refer to which election) but that does not invalidate Mebane's finding, which is very important. Whatever is wrong with electronic voting, one heck of a lot was wrong with levers and punchcards in 2000 in Florida, and probably still is where they are still used.

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