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Reply #190: charitably, we are talking past each other [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-20-05 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #189
190. charitably, we are talking past each other
Are you asserting that false recall in the NES is obviously irrelevant to exit polls because you don't find the phrase "exit polls" on the NES website? Oh-kay.

I've made my case, and you haven't laid a glove on it. Conceivably you would find it easier to understand it if I presented it in the form of 120 scenarios, and I will try to do something like that, but I don't construe it as an obligation.

Your assumptions are not strengthened (or weakened) by characterizing them as "NUMERICAL ANALYSIS."

Suppose we stipulate that Bush had to win 17% of Gore 2000 voters. Do you have any evidence that he didn't?

I keep looking for the "clincher" -- the impossibility proof -- and it always seems to come back to assumptions. John Kerry reportedly said something like, "I can't believe I'm losing to that idiot." Yeah, well.

You have an unusual position in this argument, because while many people believed that Kerry was doing better than the pre-election polls seemed to indicate, you were one of the very few to believe that he had a 98%(?) chance of victory. Certainly you consistently start from different assumptions than most political observers. And you like to present NUMERICAL ANALYSES that you believe buttress your assumptions.
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