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Reply #180: Well, we probably won't, Melissa [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-20-05 06:11 AM
Response to Reply #174
180. Well, we probably won't, Melissa
but I would nonetheless argue that my concerns are not irrelevant, are not red herrings (except in the sense that I think the exit polls are a probably red herring) nor of merely academic "interest". My own academic interests are quite other.

And if your estimate of the magnitude of the alleged vote-shift is based on the exit poll evidence, then I think it is shaky. The strongest evidence that the exit poll discrepancy was not due to fraud is given in the ESI study of Ohio - at least for Ohio. Discrepancies were not greater where Bush's increase in vote share was greater.

It is of course perfectly possible that Ohio was won by voter suppression rather than vote fraud. Or that vote fraud swung it, but escaped the exit polls (also perfectly possible). But that undermines the exit poll story in itself, as Ohio has been the poster child for the exit poll evidence. In other words, if the exit polls were not more off in Ohio where Bush's increase was greatest, it looks as though some other explanation is required for the exit poll discrepancy in Ohio. NH is also a stumbling block (though not an insuperable one, as Land Shark has pointed out - the discrepancy could have arisen through vote destruction - but that is not the mechanism generally alleged for the exit-poll red shift).

You may consider these nit-picking details. But the devil is often in the details. An apparently simple case can fall apart when looked at closely. And I don't want this case to fall apart. It was a corrupt election.
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