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Reply #160: Googling? How 'bout crunching? Bush needed 16.2%-17.7% of Gore voters! [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #130
160. Googling? How 'bout crunching? Bush needed 16.2%-17.7% of Gore voters!
Edited on Fri Aug-19-05 09:23 PM by TruthIsAll
to get his 3 million margin, depending on the exit poll time
line.. 

We assume equal 100% turnout of both Gore and Bush voters.

USING THE FINAL 1:25PM EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS):
ONE OUT OF 6 (16.2%) GORE VOTERS HAD TO SWITCH TO BUSH,GIVEN
THAT ONE OUT OF 11 (9.0%) BUSH VOTERS SWITCHED TO KERRY.
THIS ASSUMES KERRY WON NEW VOTERS BY 54/45%.

AT THE 12:22AM TIMELINE (13047 RESPONDENTS): 
KERRY WON NEW VOTERS BY 57/41%. BUSH NEEDED 17.7% OF GORE
VOTERS TO GET HIS 3 MILLION VOTE "MANDATE".

Note: I adjusted Nader/Other percentages slightly (21/71/8) to
10/64/26) to back into the actual final numbers as close as
possible. In fact, it is more accurate, since the third party
vote totaled near 1%.


Final
1:25pm 13660 respondents
Voted	Pct	Bush	Kerry	Other	Votes
No	17.31%	45.0%	54.0%	1%	21.16
Gore	40.25%	16.2%	83.8%	0%	49.21
Bush	39.82%	91.0%	9.0%	0%	48.68
Nader	2.62%	10.0%	64.0%	26%	3.20
	100%	50.81%	48.34%	0.85%	122.26
	122.26	62.12	59.10	1.04	

***************************************************

Pristine:
12:22AM 13047 respondents
Voted	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Other	Votes
No	17.31%	41.0%	57.0%	2%	21.16
Gore	40.25%	17.7%	82.3%	0%	49.21
Bush	39.82%	91.0%	9.0%	0%	48.68
Nader	2.62%	10.0%	64.0%	26%	3.20
	100%	50.72%	48.25%	1.03%	122.26
	122.26	62.01	58.99	1.26	

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