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Reply #150: I think that it is worthwhile to doodle up some numbers... [View All]

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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #146
150. I think that it is worthwhile to doodle up some numbers...
I've been doodling them up since the day after the election. Sometimes, I remind myself of the scene in the old movie "War Games", where the computer is trying to find a winning scenario to nuclear war. "Let me try the New Voters break evenly/Limited War option...", etc.

Let me put the math problem out front (in the spirit of friendliness). Of the four groups (Bush2K, Gore2K, Other, New), only Bush2K matters (because they break 90+% to Bush). You could have New break to Bush but to make up for Other and the 3M Bush plurality, you need to break significantly to Bush. That leaves "trace", to use your forensic analogy. 'Snot "plausible". You could leave Gore voters at home (snot plausible either for the reasons you stated). You could make Gore2K "red-shift" but it is a BIG shift and you have the trace problem again. You could do all of the above but then you end up defending many "slightly less plausible scenarios" at once... "I tell ya it was the perfect storm, dammit!"

The easiest way is to have more Bush2k voters. The problem is 122 million votes. You need more Bush2k voters than actually exist. A minor inconsistency. (BTW, I'm not saying Mitofsky did this... I think the exit polls "don't matter" except as a detector of "trace").

The irony is that it is NOT a killer argument. It is too obvious, much like a bar bet to win a beer.

I take all of your posts VERY seriously, OTOH. But I think TIA is 100% right this time. This IS "the clincher". Game, set, and match. But hey, its a friendly game as you say and he beat me too (he has this "sleeper" serve which kinda creeps up on you and then he "trash-talks" you while you are trying to figure it out). And... let's go through the scenarios anyway.

MUCH more importantly than all this, I think the fuckers stole the election. I'm still not exactly sure how. I'm not sure what constitutes "proof" or to whom one offers such "proof". I dunno what to say to your friend. But I am certain of this.

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