You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #147: Foo-bar.. you are out of your league. [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #132
147. Foo-bar.. you are out of your league.
Edited on Fri Aug-19-05 10:17 AM by TruthIsAll
You should know better than to venture into the world of
mathematical analysis.

Stick to what you are good at.
But, what are you good at?

**********************************************************

There is no unique solution. 

But... we can still come up with a mathematical relationship
to calculate the breakeven Kerry vote. 

Given a Kerry percentage of Bush 2000 voters, we can
determine the percentage of Gore votes he needed to tie Bush.
					
TV	122.26	Total 2004 votes	
	MaxVotes	Pct2004	
G	49.2	40.24%	Gore
B	48.7	39.83%	Bush
N	2.6	2.13%	Nader
Total	100.5	82.20%	
			
NV	21.76	17.80%	New voters
Kerry			
KNV	11.750 54%	New votes
KN	1.846	71%	Nader votes
KGV	X1*49.2	X1	Gore votes
KBV	X2*48.7	X2	Bush votes
Total	13.5964		+ X1*49.2+ X2*48.7
			
Bush			
BNV	9.792	45%	New votes
BN	0.546	21%	Nader votes
BGV	(1-X1)*49.2	1-X1	Gore votes
BBV	(1-X2)*48.7	1-X2	Bush votes
Total	10.338		+(1- X1)*49.2+ (1-X2) *48.7
			
Total Kerry                         = Total Bush			
			
x1*g + x2*b +.54*nv +.71n =(1-x1)*g+ (1-x2)*b +.45*nv
+.21*n			
			
2x1*g  - g  +2x2*b -b +.09*nv + .50*n = 0			
			
g * (2x1-1) + b *(2x2-1) +.09*nv +.50*n =0			
			
49.2 * (2x1-1) + 48.7 *(2x2-1) +.09*21.76 +.50*2.6 =0			
					
98.4*x1 - 49.2+  97.4 * x2  - 48.7 + 1.9584 + 1.30 = 0					
					
98.4*x1 + 97.4*x2 = 49.2 +48.7 -1.9584 - 1.30					
					
98.4*x1 + 97.4*x2 = 94.64					
					
x1= (94.64 -97.4x2)/98.4					
					
x1=.9618 -.9898*x2					
					
x1	x2				
K%G	K%B				
95.19%	1.00%				
94.20%	2.00%				
93.21%	3.00%				
92.22%	4.00%				
91.23%	5.00%				
90.24%	6.00%				
89.25%	7.00%				
88.26%	8.00%				
87.27%	9.00%				
86.28%	10.00%				
85.29%	11.00%				
84.30%	12.00%				
					
Using the Final Exit Poll, modified for the new
weightings.					
If Kerry gets 2% of Bush 2000 voters, he needs 94.20% of Gore
voters to tie					
2000	Pct	K	B	N	Votes
NV	17.80%	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%	21.76
G	40.24%	94.20%	5.80%	0.00%	49.2
B	39.83%	2.00%	98.00%	0.00%	48.7
N	2.13%	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%	2.6
Total	100%	49.83%	49.83%	0.35%	122.26
					
If Kerry gets 6% of Bush 2000 voters, he needs 90.24% of Gore
voters to tie					
2000	Pct	K	B	N	Votes
NV	17.80%	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%	21.76
G	40.24%	90.24%	9.76%	0.00%	49.2
B	39.83%	6.00%	94.00%	0.00%	48.7
N	2.13%	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%	2.6
Total	100%	49.83%	49.83%	0.35%	122.26
					
If Kerry gets 8% of Bush 2000 voters, he needs 88.26% of Gore
voters to tie					
2000	Pct	K	B	N	Votes
NV	17.80%	54.00%	45.00%	1.00%	21.76
G	40.24%	88.26%	11.74%	0.00%	49.2
B	39.83%	8.00%	92.00%	0.00%	48.7
N	2.13%	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%	2.6
Total	100%	49.83%	49.83%	0.35%	122.26

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC