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Reply #146: I will try to doodle up some numbers [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #130
146. I will try to doodle up some numbers
of how the splits may have gone.

I don't know whether any pre-election polls (from 2004) ask about 2000 vote as well as vote intention. I believe there is a 2000-2002-2004 NES panel study which may shed some light.

But let's not get too subtle. The pre-election polls typically showed a very close race with, on average, Bush slightly ahead (see http://pollingreport.com/2004.htm ). If we assume, as we seem to with decent warrant, that new voters (i.e., non-voters in 2000) split for Kerry, then as with your water balloon, Bush's lead or even competitiveness had to come from somewhere else. Wouldn't the obvious back-of-the-envelope inference be that more Gore 2000 than Bush 2000 voters were either defecting or opting out?

It is of course possible to subject the pre-election polls to a style of meta-analysis that indicates that properly understood, they clearly showed that Kerry had the advantage. I was open to those arguments before the election, and I still am. But I daresay that they are speculative, not definitive.

I suspect that for forensic analysis of the 2004 election, attention is best focused on particular states -- but if you have a killer argument that generates new avenues for testing the fraud hypothesis, please do share. (It could even be a half-baked argument in progress. We are all friends here, on good days at least.)
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