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Reply #144: TIA vs OTOH /FEBBLE et al: FACTS, ASSUMPTIONS, ANALYSIS, CONCLUSIONS [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-19-05 08:43 AM
Response to Reply #126
144. TIA vs OTOH /FEBBLE et al: FACTS, ASSUMPTIONS, ANALYSIS, CONCLUSIONS
Edited on Fri Aug-19-05 09:42 AM by TruthIsAll
A Summary of the Debate: Facts, Assumptions, Analysis and Conclusions

TIA
====
FACTS:
122.26 mm voted in 2004

MAXIMUM NUMBER OF 2000 voters who could have voted in 2004:
Bush: 48.7mm (39.8%)
Kerry: 49.2mm (41.2%
Nader: 3.2mm (2.6%)

MINIMUM NUMBER OF NEW 2004 VOTERS: 21.5mm (17.4%)

National Exit Poll Timeline:
4pm 8349 respondents: Kerry 51%
Kerry % of NEW voters 59%

7:33pm 11027 respondents: Kerry 51%
Kerry % of NEW voters 59%

12:22am 13047 respondents: Kerry 51%
Kerry % of NEW voters 57%

1:25pm 13660 respondents: Kerry 48%
Kerry % of NEW voters 54%


ASSUMPTIONS:
All Bush 2000 voters (100%) came to vote in 2004.
Only 86-100% of Gore Voters came out
Kerry % of New voters (above)

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:
KERRY WINS ALL 120 POPULAR VOTE SCENARIOS

CONCLUSION:
IT IS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THAT BUSH WON.
IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT KERRY WON BY 4-6 MILLION VOTES, DEPENDING ON HIS PERCENT OF NEW VOTERS


OTOH
====
FACTS
As given above

ASSUMPTIONS
A 2002 VOTER SURVEY INDICATES THAT GORE VOTERS FORGOT WHO THEY VOTED FOR. SOME MAY HAVE WILLFULLY LIED TO IDENTIFY WITH BUSH. THIS TRAIT WAS NOT THE CASE FOR BUSH VOTERS.

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
None

CONCLUSION
IT IS LIKELY THAT BUSH ADDED 13 MILLION VOTES TO HIS 2000 TOTAL VOTER TURNOUT (49 TO 62 MM) AND WON THE ELECTION BY THE RECORDED 3 MILLION VOTE MARGIN: 62-59.

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