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Reply #126: Thank you, Febble, for your prompt response.... [View All]

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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #118
126. Thank you, Febble, for your prompt response....
I know nothing of "social psychology" and I hate to look a gift horse in the mouth (U.S. saying... sorry) but I was hoping to get something a little more usable than what you sent me. All I was able to find from your reference was a single sentence in a review of a book on human memory which reads : "Schacter notes five major kinds of bias: consistency, change, hindsight, egocentric, and stereotypical. With a consistency bias there is a tendency to view the past as more consistent with the present than it was...".

I'm afraid that is even less germaine than my consistency bias from econometrics.

I was specifically looking for the explanation to this: "the final Bush/Gore proportions diverge from what is possible in exactly the way that one would expect - that people like to report have previously voting for the person they are currently voting for. I think it is known as the 'consistency bias'."

No matter...

I think the rest of your post helps. Your next two "tendencies" sound strangely familiar although the wording is a bit different (might be a US/UK thing - "You say tomato and I say...", etc.). So... before we look at TIA, can we confirm that we are talking about the same thing? I think I am much better off talking about two things which I kinda recognize rather than a third thing I've never heard of.

Your first tendency is clearly the over estimation or over reporting of voting which I think is the oldest response error to be documented. What throws me a little about your reference is that in the U.S., while "misremembering", etc. are mentioned, most of the research focuses on the civic pressure to have voted (much like church attendence)... or the "salience of the civic norm of voting" as in this:

Brian D. Silver, Paul R. Abramson and Barbara A. Anderson, "The Presence of Others and Over-reporting of
Voting in American National Elections," Public Opinion Quarterly, 1986.

or this:

Stanley Presser, "Can Context Changes Reduce Vote Over-reporting?," Public Opinion Quarterly, Winter, 1990.

Are we talking about the same thing?

Your second tendency stumps me more. Judging from the time period and the "controversy" in your citation, this seems to refer to "post-election bandwagon effect" but your citation does seem to suggest "consistency" or "selective memory" which is the exact opposite of this response error as I (imperfectly) understand it. One commonly cited paper on this is:

Robert H. Prisuta, A Post-Election Bandwagon Effect? - Comparing National Exit Poll Data with a General Population Survey, SRMS/ASA 1993

available here:

http://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/Proceedings/papers/...

Are we still talking about the same thing?









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