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Reply #120: See my post 118 above [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #71
120. See my post 118 above
There is certainly a scientific basis for the theory.

It has been shown that

a) people like to report consistency (so voters who report Bush-Bush or Gore-Kerry are more likely to be lying to maintain consistency than voters who report Bush-Kerry or Gore-Bush) and

b) people like to report having voted for the winner.

Lying is not the right word. "Misremembering" is usually used, and it is a well-researched human trait. We construct our memories, and reject bits that don't fit. It's actually how we stave off the fragmentation of memory that afflicts those with Alzheimer's and maintain our life narrative in some state of cohesion.

And to the extent that misremembering voting for the winner is the stronger trait, it would give rise to more people "misremembering" voting for the Bush than for Gore. I'm sure it's not a Democratic trait. I bet no-one remembers voting for Dole (does anyone even remember Dole?)

As I say in the post above, the more striking thing is that if misremembering accounts for the numbers (and they are well within the reported "up to one in five") then it does mean appear to mean that Kerry lost more than 10% of the Gore vote (although the MoE on that sample will be quite high - it was a sub-sample), while gaining the majority of those who did not vote in 2000.

But a swing to the left in young voters and a swing to the right in older voters is certainly not unprecedented.

Suggestive, I would say, therefore, only. By no means a clincher.
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