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Reply #117: I'm afraid we are at a dead-end. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 04:28 PM
Response to Reply #102
117. I'm afraid we are at a dead-end.
Edited on Thu Aug-18-05 04:45 PM by TruthIsAll
These are very simple observations.

Let B= maximum number of Bush 2000 voters who voted in 2004.
Let G= maximum number of Gore 2000 voters who voted in 2004
Let N= maximum number of Nader 2000 voters who voted in 2004.
Let TV = Total Votes in 2004

We know B,G, N and TV.
B= 48.7 mm
G= 49.2 mm
N= 2.6 mm
TV = 122.26

Therefore we can compute the Minimum number of New 2004 Voters:
NV = TV - B - G - N.

We know Kerry got .54* NV, based on the final exit poll.
We know Bush got .45* NV, based on the final exit poll.

We know Kerry got .71* N, based on the final exit poll.
We know Kerry got .21* N, based on the final exit poll.

Assume
X1 = percentage of Gore voters for Kerry
X2 = percentage of Bush 2000 voters for Bush

Total Kerry vote is
KV = X1*G + X2*B + .54*NV + .71*N

Total Bush vote is
BV =(1-X1)*G + (1-X2)*B +.54*NV + .21*N

Next step:
Calculate the percentages X1, X2 for which KV = BV.

Anyone care to try?
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