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Reply #112: THE CALCULATION FOR THE 37% GORE/ 54% KERRY NEW VOTER SCENARIO - AND MORE. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 01:25 PM
Response to Reply #9
112. THE CALCULATION FOR THE 37% GORE/ 54% KERRY NEW VOTER SCENARIO - AND MORE.
Edited on Thu Aug-18-05 01:52 PM by TruthIsAll
He wins by 1.03 mm votes

....	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
New	0.2056	0.54	0.45	0.01
Gore	0.37	0.91	0.09	0
Bush	0.3982	0.09	0.91	0
Nader	0.0262	0.71	0.21	0.08

	1.00	50.22%	49.37%	0.42%
	122.26	61.39	60.36	0.51

Because Kerry, Bush and Nader weights are given, the remainder
(for the 122.26 total) must be New voters.

But New voters comprised only 17-18% of the 2004 electorate. 
Thus, Gore voters comprised more than 37%. 

And Bush did not get 39.82% (his maximum). 
Some Bush voters stayed home.

It was probably very close to: 
Kerry 39.5%, Bush 39.0%

....	WEIGHT	k	b	n
n	0.1888	0.54	0.45	0.01
g	0.395	0.91	0.09	0
b	0.39	0.09	0.91	0
n	0.0262	0.71	0.21	0.08
	1	51.51%	48.09%	0.40%
	122.26	62.98	58.80	0.49


BUT WHY SHOULD WE BELIEVE THE FINAL EXIT POLL PERCENTAGE?
KERRY won 57%, NOT 54% of NEW voters,
ACCORDING TO THE PRISTINE 13047

That means he won by 6 million votes (52%-47%)
It was a Kerry landslide.


....	WEIGHT	k	b	n
n	0.1888	0.57	0.41	0.02
g	0.395	0.91	0.09	0
b	0.39	0.09	0.91	0
n	0.0262	0.71	0.21	0.08
	1	52.08%	47.34%	0.59%
	122.26	63.67	57.87	0.72

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