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Reply #111: of course I believe that a plausible scenario was ignored [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 01:05 PM
Response to Reply #110
111. of course I believe that a plausible scenario was ignored
namely that Kerry won less than 90% of actual Gore 2000 voters who voted in 2004.

I have never even _denied_ the fact that Bush could not have received 43% of the 2004 vote. That isn't the argument. I tried to understand _your_ argument, now it is your turn.

I have never doubted your relentlessness. I wish it were more discriminating.

The NEP table does not assert that the MoE is "1.0%", as anyone can readily verify. There is obviously some freehand rounding in the NEP table, since it is mathematically impossible for the cut-point between 2 and 1 to be at 8000 voters in both the third and fourth rows. However, the 15 at lower left seems to imply a design effect square root between 1.45 and 1.55. Conveniently, a DESR of 1.45 would yield an MoE of precisely 1.45 for n = 10000, and a DESR of 1.55 would yield an MoE of 1.55. The mean value, 1.5, could be rounded either down to 1 (not 1.0) or up to 2. If you can find a DESR estimate that fits the table values better, I would be interested to know.

I sent you a link from which you can learn all about the National Election Study, if you care to. Yes, the 2002 NES was just a poll (and the other polls in which false recall has been documented were just polls). The exit poll was just a poll. Why would you assume that false recall in the 2002 NES would have no bearing on false recall in the exit poll?
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