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Reply #106: a few corrections [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #104
106. a few corrections
since I can't go through every argument every time.

Yes, I am familiar with and have conducted sensitivity analysis. But of course the validity of the analysis can't be measured by the sheer number of scenarios tested. You could have run one scenario, or five million, and the force of the argument would be determined by the limiting case.

I did not fall 4 million votes short, but you come to this conclusion by apparently failing to read my post #9 beyond the line labeled "Totals." Not that I am wedded to the assumptions in that post.

As I explain elsewhere (at least twice), you cannot extract the marginals for reported 2000 vote and apply them to your estimates of actual 2000 vote. That is your faulty assumption.

I will let others tally the personal attacks as they will, but they have no bearing on the arguments regardless.

Since you have ducked the question twice: the E/M table reflects a design effect square root (multiplier) of approximately 1.5, at least if we can trust the "15" at lower left. Be advised, however, that these are described as "typical sampling errors" because the design effect varies from question to question. This is something you could actually read about.

You say I am assuming some desperate hypothetical. But false recall is demonstrated in many surveys, and I and others have provided the figures and the links, and you have ignored them. The "faith-based" and "Hail Mary" rhetoric is, well, rhetoric.
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