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Reply #104: OTOH, let's review where we are right now [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #94
104. OTOH, let's review where we are right now
Edited on Thu Aug-18-05 11:30 AM by TruthIsAll
I have presented a sensitivity analysis of 120 scenarios of Bush/Gore voter turnout and Kerry share of new voters. You appear to object very strongly to this study on its face.

OTOH, do you know the purpose of sensitivity analysis? Have you ever used this methodology? Just because I am using this very standard approach to illuminate the implausibility of a Bush win, you accuse me of rallying the troops and avoiding the facts.

On the contrary, as you purport to be a quantitative analyst, you should commend me for the effort. There is no justification in your personal attack. Why does it bother you so?

To your credit, you have attempted to reconstruct the numbers. But I must give you an I for Incomplete, professor. You neglected to check your work and fell 4mm votes short (118mm), coming up with a virtual tie vote. I then showed you that the shortfall had to be due to New voters and since Kerry won a clear majority of them, he also wins the scenario - as I said he did.

You have not refuted that.

Well, let's take a look at the model.
Let's look at my assumptions.
Then we will look at your facts.
And we look at your assumptions.

I gave Bush (and you) the benefit of the doubt in the assumptions.

-I gave you a 100% turnout of Bush 2000 voters.
You have not refuted that.

-I gave you the final exit poll 37% Kerry share of 2004 voters.
You have not refuted that.

-I gave you the final exit poll percentages which had Bush a winner at 13660 respondents because the numbers were matched to the vote. All prior exit poll time lines up to 13047 at 12:22am showed that Kerry was the winner.

You have not refuted that.

In spite of all these assumptions in favor of Bush, Kerry still won all the scenarios.

You have not refuted that.

So now you resort to shrill, desperate personal attacks.

You said I had "a lot of nerve" because I agreed with the Mitofsky MoE table, which shows a 1% MoE for exit polls over 10,000 respondents.

You have not refuted that.

And what is the reader left with after all of this? Your "false recall" argument. It is a very weak, unsubstantiated faith-based case when juxtaposed next to the numerical voter turnout sensitivity analysis, which is based on facts, not "faith".

You are asking us to assume "on faith" the hypothetical that Gore voters forgot that they voted for him in 2000 when asked the question. But at the same time, we should also accept "on faith" that Bush voters did in fact recall who they voted for. Do you realize how utterly ridiculous that conjecture is? I did not base the sensitivity analysis on faith.

I understand your position. When you are devoid of any plausible explanation to refute the sensitivity analysis of cold, hard numbers, you must resort to faith-based arguments.

You are left with a very, very shaky hypothesis based on your last gasp 2002 poll argument. I have asked you for details on that poll, as if it is even germaine to my analysis. It's a Hail Mary pass on your part. Still waiting.

As Land Shark has stated, this argument brings us to the abyss.
As as he has also pointed out, there is absolutely nothing wrong in the way I have presented the analysis - to show the extreme implausibility of Bush win since Kerry won all 120 scenarios.
You have not refuted that.

Know this: I will keep posting the analyses. And they will continue to withstand your vain attempts to refute them.

Eventually, you will just give up trying.
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