You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

Reply #97: actually, no part of my argument hinges on the MoE [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 09:58 AM
Response to Reply #84
97. actually, no part of my argument hinges on the MoE
Everyone here agrees that the discrepancy between the exit polls and the official returns can't be explained by random chance alone. This business about "hav(ing) to keep those MoEs as wide as the holland tunnel" is quite obviously wrong.

But analytically it is essential to distinguish between MoE and accuracy. Sampling error is just one form of error, and you like to talk as if it is the only kind.

And analytically it is useful, at least for the sake of credibility, to make a good-faith effort to calculate the MoEs correctly. Disregarding the design effect fails that test.

Your post seems to assert that E/M's table implies a design effect multiplier of 1.0, but it clearly does not. Look at it harder.

Since the design effect multiplier is incorporated directly into the MoE, it is confusing to say that the factors you cite "make up for" clustering. The MoE refers only to sampling error, which is why it incorporates a design effect correction.

If we wish to assess the plausible magnitude of non-sampling error, a good approach might be to take a dispassionate look at recorded errors in other exit polls. Merely asserting that exit polls are more accurate than telephone polls doesn't help much (especially if you never actually assess how accurate the telephone polls are).
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC