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Reply #84: Getting a little testy, aren't we? You guys get all worked up over MoE. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 02:17 AM
Response to Reply #66
84. Getting a little testy, aren't we? You guys get all worked up over MoE.
Cuts to the core of the case, I guess.

You have to keep those MoEs as wide as the holland tunnel so nothing exceeds it. I see you are back to the old talking points: MoE. I thought we MOE'D that one down a long time ago. Still trying to wear me down, eh?

But Mitofsky say the MoE is 1% for 10,000 respondents (rounded).
I calculate it as 0.84% for 13,047. That's 1% rounded to include your "design effect". Just like Mitofsky.

Jeez, how many times must I keep repeating that?

But I digress.

Exit polls are MORE accurate AND also have a SMALLER margin of error than traditional polls because of two basic reasons:

1) More voters are sampled in exit polls than in standard surveys. So N is greater. And therefore 1/sqrt(N) is smaller.

2) People who have just voted know who they voted for.
No undecided or change of mind. Makes up for a lot of the "cluster".
Or as you would call it, the (intelligent) design effect.

Of course if they voted for the Democrat, there is a good chance they will forget or lie about it four years later, if asked.

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