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Reply #81: Once again, regarding your 2002 poll, a few more questions.. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-18-05 01:00 AM
Response to Reply #21
81. Once again, regarding your 2002 poll, a few more questions..
"Again, if we assume that the raw data were wrong, there is no particular reason to assume that the Bush/Gore results should be accurate. However, in the 2002 National Election Study (which interviewed both voters and non-voters), 51.6% of respondents reported having voted for George Bush in 2000, and 44.3% reported voting for Al Gore, among those who reported a 2000 presidential vote. I therefore invite you to explain why you think that the 2004 exit poll result proves fraud but the 2002 NES result proves nothing in particular."

What is the point?
What information are you gleaning from the poll?

Unlike the 2004 exit poll, the 2002 poll did not have to match the vote.
It was just a poll.
Very good.
The results did not match the 2000 vote, did they?
Why am I not surprised?
So we can be 100% sure that the poll was pristine, right?
The 51.6% of respondents who said they voted for Bush was really 51.6%.

But how do we know that 43% of those polled in the 2004 National were Bush 2000 voters? You agreed that the weightings were ADJUSTED to match the vote.
So again, I ask you:
Was the 43% an actual sample?
Or was it a weighting applied to match the vote, as you have stated?

And if it was a weighting, not a polling result, are we not comparing apples and oranges?

In any case, do the 2002 results
1-change the fact that Gore got 540,000 more votes?
2-change the fact that at most 48.7mm Bush 2000 voters could have voted in 2004?
3-change the fact that 122.26mm voted in 2004?

What does it have to do with the questions I raised about the 2004 National Exit Poll?

About your 2002 poll:
Was there a timeline of votes earlier in the day which indicated a trend?
Like the first 8349, 1107, 13047 in the National Exit Poll which all showed Kerry winning?

Who commissioned the 2002 poll?
For what purpose?
How was the sampling done?
Where was the sampling done?
What organization was commissioned to do the actual sampling?
How many were sampled?
What was the sampling MoE?
What was the party_ID weighting of the respondents?
How was the poll weighted demographically?
What is the NES track record?


Had enough?
I may have some more for you after you answer these.
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