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Reply #69: I have never stretched the case. Just used publicly available data. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #67
69. I have never stretched the case. Just used publicly available data.
Edited on Wed Aug-17-05 09:57 PM by TruthIsAll
Land Shark, just take a look at the Mitofsky MoE table cited in this thread.

In the table (as well as in notes accompanying the National Exit Poll demographics) Mitofsky gives a 1% MoE for an exit poll with greater than 10000 respondents.

OTOH and foo-bar have argued incessantly (and in this thread) that the MoE is not 1%, although the standard MoE formula and Mitofsky's table state that it is.

Their arrogance in denying the obvious is purely to debunk my analysis of both state and exit polls. The state exit polls show that Bush exceeded the MoE in 16 states (a 1 in 19 trillion probability) .

The National exit poll shows that Bush easily exceeded the 1% MoE by going from 48% in the poll to 51% in the vote. The odds are of this deviation are astronomical as well.

DUers would be most interested to hear your comments on this specific matter.
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