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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #36
42. asked and answered
Edited on Wed Aug-17-05 04:52 PM by OnTheOtherHand
I (among others) already tore apart the math -- or, rather, I smashed the assumptions on which the math was based. You insist on treating the question "Who did you vote for in 2000?" (or whatever the actual wording was) as if it had a one-to-one correspondence with whom people had actually voted for in 2000.

We have ample evidence that this assumption is wrong.

For whatever reason, you change the subject every time I cite the evidence.

(EDIT: Oh, but I think I see why you are confused. I will try to show you the numbers in another way. --I will be going to my daughter's soccer practice soon. Given that false vote recall typically benefits the incumbent and demonstrably did so in 2002, we can expect some people who _didn't_ vote in 2000 to claim that they voted for Bush. And we can expect some people who voted for Gore to claim that they voted for Bush. Not only does that throw off the percentages in each category, but it will throw off the marginal percentages within the categories. The poll can be expected to exaggerate Kerry's support among new voters and Gore voters, because some of them will not only vote for Bush in 2004 but "retroactively defect" to Bush in 2000. So rejecting the first set of percentages and accepting the second does lead to strange results, but that doesn't represent an internal contradiction.)
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