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Reply #17: Ahoy!!! Here substantive analysis (from you): [View All]

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Ahoy!!! Here substantive analysis (from you):
febble on TIA's argument (Hobson's Choice): "This is a good argument. It makes mathematical sense." Full text and link below.


Febble (357 posts) Sat Jun-25-05 05:00 AM
Response to Reply #41
49. OK, to put the record straight:


Edited on Sat Jun-25-05 05:21 AM by Febble

I referred to TIA on DKos:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/6/22/183230/208

so it is only fair that I comment here.

Here is where I agree with TIA:

I agree that his table showing the "12.22" exit poll responses shows a) Kerry winning and b) proportions of respondents who say they voted for Bush and Gore respectively that match the proportions that actually voted for Bush and Gore in 2000.

One possible interpretation therefore, is that the poll responses accurately reflected both the proportions of votes in 2000 and the proportions of votes in 2004.

I also agree with TIA that his table showing the "1.25" responses shows a) Kerry losing and b) proportions of respondents who say they voted for Bush and Gore that do not match the proportions who actually voted for Bush and Gore in 2000. Moreover, I agree with TIA that not only are the proportions wrong for the 2000 vote in the second table, the proportions are impossible, as it that implies more repeat Bush voters in 2004 than actually voted for Bush in 2000.

One possible interpretation of this, therefore, is that the responses have been reweighted to match the results (we know this was done), but that the fact that this reweighting makes the plausible number of Bush repeat voters implausible (and in fact, impossible) suggests that the vote count used for the reweighting must have been fraudulent.

This is a good argument. It makes mathematical sense. And I agree that it is suggestive that the Gore/Bush proportions in the early table actually match the vote-count Gore/Bush proportions, a point in favour of their veracity. So far so good.

Here is where I diverge from TIA's thinking:

Suppose there is a discrepancy between the count and the poll, as there was. And that this was either due to the fact that Kerry voters had been polled at, say 1.12 times the rate of Bush voters, or that a proportion of Kerry votes had been switched to Bush (I haven't worked out the proportion, but I know TIA has).

When the precinct results start to come in, the E-M computer program will start to discover this, and reweight the projections in line with the precinct results. I do not know how this is done, only that it is done, and I know this from the E-M FAQ:
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