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Reply #11: I don't object to the fact that he uses assumptions [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 10:31 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. I don't object to the fact that he uses assumptions
I object to the analytical incoherence of the argument.

If we assume that all the NEP statistics are true, then there is no internal contradiction (barring an undemonstrated calculation error).

I tried to reconstruct the assumptions that TIA actually used in his analysis, and couldn't. So I cannot know specifically which of those assumptions vary from NEP's.

TIA's results are only as good as his assumptions, and if we can't even identify the assumptions -- much less consider whether they are better or worse than NEP's -- then we are nowhere.

I get the impression from your post that TIA has evoked the appearance of an internal contradiction in the NEP figures that (as far as I can tell, and as the rest of my post attempted to illustrate) doesn't actually exist.

I assume that some of NEP's assumptions are indeed measurably wrong. It is my impression that the way in which they have weighted to the official returns will distort some of the crosstabs. Unfortunately, even if I am right, it doesn't shed any light on why the unweighted results differ from the official returns.
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