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Reply #10: While "inconsistent", there's nothing wrong with accepting final exit poll [View All]

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Land Shark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-17-05 09:55 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. While "inconsistent", there's nothing wrong with accepting final exit poll
(I'm responding to the first 3 paragraphs of otoh directly above.)

While "inconsistent", there's nothing wrong with accepting final national exit poll numbers as true in order to show that various internal inconsistencies or impossibilities are therefore necessary to support them when accepted as true, and thereafter using those same inconsistencies or impossibilities as evidence that the final national exit poll numbers showing bush victory (which otoh expressly agrees in the above post had to be changed to show a bush victory) are not correct because they can not be a valid reweighting process leading to MORE accuracy when subject to such unlikely internal tensions and inconsistencies.

Lawyers do this "assuming as true" process all the time for purposes of motions to dismiss: the court assumes that all allegations in the complaint are true, then the court can only dismiss the complaint at the motion to dismiss stage of the process if, after being accepted as true, the allegations of the complaint still fail to state a cognizable legal claim (i.e. fails to make legal sense).

General Form:
If X is true, then Y and Z necessarily follow as being true. But Y and Z can't be true, therefore X is likely not true either, (or is not true at all).

You can quibble with details of this style of argument, but you can't allege that one must either accept the exit poll numbers or reject them, and that assuming them as true for purposes of analysis is somehow confusing or illogical. And that you're still trying to figure out (in effect) which side TIA is on.

I think it was Keats who coined the term "negative capability" referring to the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time as being one of the hallmarks of intellect. Indeed, interplay between two or more forces in conflict is necessary to understand the world and both of these forces in tension are "true", it is not "one or the other". Here, TIA goes one step further by showing that these two "forces" as it were can not logically exist in the presence of each other, so we need not accept the simultaneous co-existence of final national exit poll numbers showing * victory and the data it is claimed to be derived from.

It doesn't appear to me that TIA in any way needs to choose "one or the other" in terms of either rejecting final national exit polls results, or accepting them provisionally and for purposes of debate only.
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