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RETURN OF THE CLINCHER: Kerry wins 120 of 120 scenarios [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-21-05 12:37 PM
Original message
RETURN OF THE CLINCHER: Kerry wins 120 of 120 scenarios
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Edited on Tue Jun-21-05 01:12 PM by TruthIsAll
I posted this months back, but it needs repeating

Assume that 100% of Bush 2000 voters still alive (48.7
million, or 39.82% of 122.26) turned out to vote in 2004.

Assume that the Final National Exit Poll "How Voted in
2000" weighting for Gore (37%) was correct. In fact,
let's assume that ALL Final National Exit Poll (13660
respondents) statistics are correct. Remember, the Final was
the ONLY poll Bush won.

Even assuming all of this, Kerry still wins by 50.22%-48.4%, a
2.23 million vote margin. See Case # 14 and the Final Exit
poll column (Kerry 54% of new voters)

Kerry won each of the 8349, 11027 and 13047 respondent
National Exit Poll time lines (3:39pm, 7:33pm, 12:22am,
respectively) by 51-48%

KERRY IS THE WINNER OF ALL 120 TURNOUT SCENARIOS IN WHICH WE
ASSUME CONSTANT 100% BUSH 2000 VOTER TURNOUT AND DECLINING
GORE VOTER TURNOUT (100% TO 88.6%). HOW COULD THIS BE? 

HERE'S HOW:
ACCORDING TO THE FINAL EXIT POLL (WHICH BUSH WON), KERRY WON
54% OF NEW VOTERS.

EVEN IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO (CASE 20) IN WHICH WE ASSUME A
MISERABLE 88.6% Gore TURNOUT (35.50% OF 122.26), KERRY STILL
WINS BY 49.66% - 48.94%. THAT'S AN 870,000 VOTE MARGIN. See
Case# 14 and the Final Exit poll column (Kerry 54% of new
voters)

					KERRY NATIONAL VOTE SCENARIOS					
					New Voter Share and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout					
					(Assume 100% Turnout of Bush 2000 voters)					

	Assumed		Prelim.	      Prelim.			Final		
	Turnout	Turnout	7:33pm	      12:22am		       2:05pm	         
                                              
	Bush	Gore	11027	       13047			13660	Bush   Gore

			KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS							
Case			59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%		

1	100.0%	100.0%	52.28%	52.11%	51.94%	51.77%	51.59%	51.42%	39.82%	40.25%
2	100.0%	99.4%	52.20%	52.03%	51.85%	51.68%	51.50%	51.33%	39.82%	40.00%
3	100.0%	98.8%	52.12%	51.95%	51.77%	51.59%	51.41%	51.23%	39.82%	39.75%
4	100.0%	98.2%	52.04%	51.86%	51.68%	51.50%	51.32%	51.14%	39.82%	39.50%
5	100.0%	97.6%	51.96%	51.78%	51.60%	51.42%	51.23%	51.05%	39.82%	39.25%
										
6	100.0%	97.0%	51.88%	51.70%	51.51%	51.33%	51.14%	50.96%	39.82%	39.00%
7	100.0%	96.4%	51.80%	51.62%	51.43%	51.24%	51.05%	50.86%	39.82%	38.75%
8	100.0%	95.8%	51.72%	51.53%	51.34%	51.15%	50.96%	50.77%	39.82%	38.50%
9	100.0%	95.2%	51.64%	51.45%	51.26%	51.07%	50.87%	50.68%	39.82%	38.25%
10	100.0%	94.6%	51.56%	51.37%	51.17%	50.98%	50.78%	50.59%	39.82%	38.00%

11	100.0%	94.0%	51.48%	51.29%	51.09%	50.89%	50.69%	50.49%	39.82%	37.75%
12	100.0%	93.4%	51.40%	51.20%	51.00%	50.80%	50.60%	50.40%	39.82%	37.50%
13	100.0%	92.8%	51.32%	51.12%	50.92%	50.72%	50.51%	50.31%	39.82%	37.25%
14	100.0%	92.2%	51.24%	51.04%	50.83%	50.63%	50.42%	50.22%	39.82%	37.00%
15	100.0%	91.6%	51.16%	50.96%	50.75%	50.54%	50.33%	50.12%	39.82%	36.75%

16	100.0%	91.0%	51.08%	50.87%	50.66%	50.45%	50.24%	50.03%	39.82%	36.50%
17	100.0%	90.4%	51.00%	50.79%	50.58%	50.37%	50.15%	49.94%	39.82%	36.25%
18	100.0%	89.8%	50.92%	50.71%	50.49%	50.28%	50.06%	49.85%	39.82%	36.00%
19	100.0%	89.2%	50.84%	50.63%	50.41%	50.19%	49.97%	49.75%	39.82%	35.75%
20	100.0%	88.6%	50.76%	50.54%	50.32%	50.10%	49.88%	49.66%	39.82%	35.50%
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