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Reply #139: I have... I'll post the link again... [View All]

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WI Independent Donating Member (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-23-05 06:23 AM
Response to Reply #119
139. I have... I'll post the link again...
Exit Poll FAQ
"How are projections made?
Projections are based on models that use votes from three (3) different sources -- exit poll interviews with voters, vote returns as reported by election officials from the sample precincts, and tabulations of votes by county. The models make estimates from all these vote reports. The models also indicate the likely error in the estimates. The best model estimate may be used to make a projection if it passes a series of tests."

Note: THREE sources... the exit poll interviews are only ONE... incomplete.

The MoE given by NEP is for the completed poll, which says Bush won. Standard Moe calculations are for statistically random samples, which the exit poll interviews were not.

The definition of a good design is dependent on the objective. Other countries aren't better... they were designing to a different objective. The NEP was hired by the networks to give the talking heads air time filler Tuesday night. They seemed to have met that objective fairly well.
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