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Internut Donating Member (436 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-22-05 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #92
93. Answer:
Edited on Wed Jun-22-05 06:15 PM by Internut
No, it is not possible that 43% of 2004 voters were Bush 2000 voters.

But in a poll, the result of "43% of those who were asked said they voted for Bush in 2000" is plausible, for reasons that were explained to you a dozen times at least and that you keep ignoring.

For some reason you keep insisting that if the poll says that 43% of the 2004 voters voted for Bush in 2000, that implies that this actually happened. As was pointed out to you, that could quite easily be explained by people misreporting their past voting behaviors, like they regularly do in other polls.

Another thing you keep misstating is that the "43%/37% in 2000" was the weight that was applied. That is an invention of yours with no basis in reality. No pollster would ever use that statistic as a weight to adjust other variables, because that statistic cannot be relied upon.

Now, since you got the answer to the question that you asked, it is only fair that you answer a question as well:


In the The 2002 American National Election Study there was this question:

V203111: Who did R (respondent) vote for in the 2000 presidential election?

With the following results:

1. Al Gore 431 44%
3. George W. Bush 502 51%
5. Ralph Nader 32
7. Other {SPECIFY} 8
8. Don't know 1
9. Refused 10
0. NA 1


Note: these are raw results, not "weighted", not tampered with in any way.

Do you consider this 2002 American National Election Study a "FRAUD", judging by those results?
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