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Reply #49: No, I mean not designed. [View All]

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WI Independent Donating Member (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-21-05 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #48
49. No, I mean not designed.
The design calls for actual vote totals to be used in combination with the exit polls. This indicates the exit polls alone are not considered accurate enough to predict the outcome. Most of the exit poll analysis is based on the fact that early exit poll raw data didn't match actual vote counts. Of course it didn't... it wasn't designed to without the vote tallies included in the formula. There's a lot of questioning and accusation based on how the final released poll "mysteriously" swung to match the tallied results. It's no mystery, when enough actual voting results are entered the poll results will eventually match the counted vote totals. This would be true whether there was fraud in the actual vote counts or not.

This is a competent design for it's intended use... to give the talking heads at the networks something to fill air time. It's not a competent design to detect fraud. An exit poll to detect fraud would need to be totally independent of the actual vote counts. I think it would be a great idea to have such a poll; unfortunately in 2004 we didn't.
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