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Reply #28: The percentages from the last election... [View All]

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WI Independent Donating Member (156 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 11:37 PM
Response to Reply #24
28. The percentages from the last election...
were obviously wrong. The question still remains why were they wrong... because of bad sampling or rampant fraud?

The basic problem with all this is you're trying to use the exit polls as independent verification of the election totals. This simply will not work because actual vote counts are an integral part of the Edison/Mitofsky methodology. The raw exit poll interviews are not designed to give meaningful information without weighting. This weighting is based at least partially on actual vote totals. The poll itself is not complete until a significant amount of ACTUAL vote totals are plugged into the weighting formulas.

From the CNN website:
"The local figures become more complete as more precincts report vote returns. The county or township vote is put into statistical models, and Edison/Mitofsky make estimates and projections using those models."

I suspect the Bush 2000 voter percentage is caused when actual vote totals didn't match interviews and the weighting formulas forced the percentage impossibly high.

In summary, this poll is not independent verification of the accuracy of the election. By the very nature of it's design, raw poll interview results do not mean anything... and the end result will always match the election results as soon as enough actual results are plugged into the weighting.
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