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Reply #19: Your position is typical: you confuse the poll with the facts. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-20-05 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #9
19. Your position is typical: you confuse the poll with the facts.
Edited on Mon Jun-20-05 10:07 PM by TruthIsAll
IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO I:
13047 respondents: 12:22am
Kerry wins easy - even with an IMPOSSIBLE 41/39% split

VOTE2000	
	Mix   Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	41%	57%	2%	7.0%	9.7%	0.3%
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%	3.1%	35.5%	0.4%
Bush	41%	90%	10%	0%	36.9%	4.1%	0.0%
Other	3%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				47.38%	51.23%	1.21%

Probability of Bush going from 47.38% (poll) to 50.73% (vote):

 1 in	38,498,885,514


IMPOSSIBLE SCENARIO II:
Final Exit Poll (1:25pm)- 13660 respondents:
BUSH WINS: PURE FICTION - 43% IS EVEN MORE IMPOSSIBLE

VOTE2000	
      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17%	41%	57%	2%	7.0%	9.7%	0.3%
Gore	37%	8%	91%	1%	3.0%	33.7%	0.4%
Bush	43%	90%	10%	0%	38.7%	4.3%	0.0%
Other	3%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				49.02%	49.61%	1.19%



PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO III:
Using the maximum calculated weightings, Kerry wins in a
landslide

VOTE2000	
      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.00%	41%	57%	2%	7.0%	9.7%	0.3%
Gore	40.24%	8%	91%	1%	3.2%	36.6%	0.4%
Bush	39.82%	90%	10%	0%	35.8%	4.0%	0.0%
Other	3.00%	13%	65%	16%	0.4%	2.0%	0.5%
	100%				46.42%	52.24%	1.22%
							
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