Reply #2: THIS RUN IS MORE REALISTIC. RESTRICT THE NON-PARTISAN MIDDLE TO 49-51%

[TruthIsAll]

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL				
6/12/05 10:10 PM							
							
In this run, Kerry wins the exit poll with 51.49%
The aggregate WPE (error) is	2.03%, compared to the 6.77%
given by  Mitofsky which helps explain his view on the rBr
(cough) differential response.	

The most partisan Bush precincts (alpha = 1.05)shows some
reluctance on the part of Repubs for Bush; these are the
hard-core Bush voters.
The middle three categories are where the reluctant Kerry
voters were hiding.	
							
TOTAL VOTE % 							
Kerry 52.50%						
Bush	47.50%						
Actual Bush	51.23%						
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	0.960						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	35%	49%	51%	65%		
Max	35%	49%	51%	65%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%		
Max	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%		
Max	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	51.49%	52.50%	1.01%		62.30	63.52	1.23
Bush	48.51%	47.50%	-1.01%		58.70	57.47	-1.23
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
Resp.	48.4%	63.1%	45.0%	48.4%	65.0%		53.0%
Dev	-4.6%	10.1%	-8.0%	-4.6%	12.0%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.05	0.96	0.94	0.99	1.00		0.96
Dev	9.0%	0.1%	-2.6%	3.5%	4.4%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	0.0%	45.3%	50.3%	65.0%	99.5%		52.50%
Bush	100.0%	54.7%	49.7%	35.0%	0.5%		47.50%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	0.0%	44.4%	48.6%	64.8%	99.6%		51.49%
Bush	100.0%	55.6%	51.4%	35.2%	0.4%		48.51%
							
							
WPE	0.0%	1.8%	3.3%	0.4%	-0.2%		2.03%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	10.0%	7.9%	11.8%	6.3%	-0.5%		8.8%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	0.0%	45.3%	50.3%	65.0%	99.5%		52.50%
							
ALPHA	1.05	0.96	0.94	0.99	1.00		0.96
AvgDev	9%	0%	-3%	3%	4%		0%
							
TOTAL							
Kerry	0	188	271	107	90		656
Pct	0.0%	45.3%	50.3%	65.0%	99.5%		52.50%
Bush	40	227	269	58	0		594
Pct	100.0%	54.7%	49.7%	35.0%	0.5%		47.50%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	262	243	80	58		663
Pct	48.4%	63.1%	45.0%	48.4%	65.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	0	116	118	52	58		345
Pct	0.0%	44.4%	48.6%	64.8%	99.6%		51.49%
Bush	19	145	125	28	0		318
Pct	100.0%	55.6%	51.4%	35.2%	0.4%		48.51%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	153	297	85	32		587
Pct	51.6%	36.9%	55.0%	51.6%	35.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	0	72	153	55	31		312
Pct	0.0%	46.8%	51.6%	65.2%	99.3%		53.58%
Bush	21	82	144	30	0		276
Pct	100.0%	53.2%	48.4%	34.8%	0.7%		46.42%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-100.0%	-9.4%	0.5%	30.0%	99.0%		2.97%
Kp-Bp	-100.0%	-11.2%	-2.7%	29.6%	99.2%		7.17%
							
WPE	0.0%	1.8%	3.3%	0.4%	-0.2%		-4.19%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.00	18.20	26.28	10.38	8.67		63.52
Bush	3.87	21.98	25.99	5.59	0.04		57.47
Diff	-3.87	-3.78	0.28	4.79	8.63		6.05
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	0.00	17.84	25.43	10.35	8.68		62.30
Bush	3.87	22.33	26.84	5.62	0.03		58.70
Diff	-3.87	-4.48	-1.42	4.73	8.65		3.60