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Reply #11: FOR ALPHA = 1.12, MAX KERRY = 53.59%, BUSH = 50.57% [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. FOR ALPHA = 1.12, MAX KERRY = 53.59%, BUSH = 50.57%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 10:12 AM by TruthIsAll
KERRY OPTIMIZATION


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/11/05 10:25 AM							
							
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a maximum KERRY vote % for alpha = 1.12

Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:         
                                         							
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average                  
                                 							
2-Kerry 2-party win 
percentages                                                
							
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average                     
                                 							
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)							

MAXIMUM VOTE % (alpha =1.12)							
Kerry 53.59%						
Bush	46.41%						

Actual Bush	51.23%						

WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.120						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%		
Max	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	54.53%	53.59%	-0.94%		66.13	64.84	-1.29
Bush	45.47%	46.41%	0.94%		54.87	56.16	1.29
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
Resp.	45.0%	45.0%	63.4%	45.3%	45.0%		53.0%
Dev	-8.0%	-8.0%	10.4%	-7.7%	-8.0%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	3.44	0.98	1.16	0.88	0.93		1.12
Dev	207.5%	-12.5%	3.7%	-21.5%	-17.3%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		53.59%
Bush	91.3%	55.0%	50.3%	25.0%	2.9%		46.41%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	19.2%	44.5%	53.8%	70.5%	93.5%		54.53%
Bush	80.8%	55.5%	46.2%	29.6%	6.5%		45.47%
							
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	8.7%	45.0%	49.7%	75.0%	97.1%		53.59%
							
TOTAL							
Kerry	3	187	269	124	87		670
Pct	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		53.59%
Bush	37	228	271	41	3		580
Pct	91.3%	55.0%	50.3%	25.0%	2.9%		46.41%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	3.44	0.98	1.16	0.88	0.93		1.12
AvgDev	208%	-13%	4%	-22%	-17%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	18	187	343	75	41		663
Pct	45.0%	45.0%	63.4%	45.3%	45.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	3	83	184	53	38		361
Pct	19.2%	44.5%	53.8%	70.5%	93.5%		54.53%
Bush	15	104	158	22	3		301
Pct	80.8%	55.5%	46.2%	29.6%	6.5%		45.47%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	22	228	197	90	50		587
Pct	55.0%	55.0%	36.6%	54.7%	55.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	0	104	84	71	50		309
Pct	0.0%	45.4%	42.8%	78.8%	100.0%		52.53%
Bush	22	125	113	19	0		279
Pct	100.0%	54.6%	57.2%	21.2%	0.0%		47.47%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-71.5%	-17.0%	-1.0%	35.0%	87.3%		7.18%
Kp-Bp	-61.5%	-10.9%	7.5%	40.9%	87.0%		9.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-2.13%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.34	18.08	26.00	11.98	8.46		64.84
Bush	3.54	22.09	26.28	3.99	0.26		56.16
Diff	-3.20	-4.02	-0.28	7.99	8.20		8.69
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	0.74	17.89	28.10	11.25	8.15		66.13
Bush	3.13	22.28	24.18	4.72	0.57		54.87
Diff	-2.38	-4.38	3.92	6.53	7.58		11.27
							
	ALPHA MAXIMUM VOTE%
	alpha	Bush	Kerry				
	1.00	43.62	56.39				
	1.02	45.33	56.11				
	1.04	46.69	55.98				
	1.06	47.78	55.90				
	1.08	48.77	55.50				
	1.10	49.69	54.68				
	1.12	50.57	53.94				
	1.14	51.41	53.28				
							
*************************************************


BUSH OPTIMIZATION

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/11/05 10:25 AM							
							
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a maximum Bush vote % for alpha = 1.12

Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:         
                                         							
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average                  
                                 							
2-Kerry 2-party win 
percentages                                                
							
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average                     
                                 							
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)							
MAXIMUM VOTE % (alpha =1.12)							
Kerry	49.43%						
Bush	50.57%						
							
Actual Bush	51.23%						

WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	1.120						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%		
Max	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	52.72%	49.43%	-3.30%		63.61	59.81	-3.81
Bush	47.28%	50.57%	3.30%		57.39	61.19	3.81
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
Resp.	47.5%	45.0%	63.2%	45.3%	45.0%		53.0%
Dev	-5.5%	-8.0%	10.2%	-7.7%	-8.0%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.19	1.01	1.16	1.20	1.20		1.12
Dev	6.5%	-9.5%	3.5%	7.0%	7.0%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		49.43%
Bush	75.0%	56.5%	50.2%	45.0%	25.0%		50.57%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	27.4%	43.8%	53.8%	60.5%	82.5%		52.72%
Bush	72.6%	56.2%	46.2%	39.6%	17.5%		47.28%
							
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	25.0%	43.5%	49.8%	55.0%	75.0%		49.43%
							
TOTAL							
Kerry	10	181	269	91	68		618
Pct	19.8%	38.0%	49.3%	60.0%	90.2%		49.43%
Bush	30	234	271	74	23		632
Pct	75.0%	56.5%	50.2%	45.0%	25.0%		50.57%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.19	1.01	1.16	1.20	1.20		1.12
AvgDev	6%	-10%	4%	7%	7%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	187	342	75	41		663
Pct	47.5%	45.0%	63.2%	45.3%	45.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	5	82	184	45	33		349
Pct	27.4%	43.8%	53.8%	60.5%	82.5%		52.72%
Bush	14	105	158	30	7		313
Pct	72.6%	56.2%	46.2%	39.6%	17.5%		47.28%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	228	198	90	49		587
Pct	52.5%	55.0%	36.8%	54.7%	55.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	5	99	85	46	34		269
Pct	22.8%	43.3%	43.0%	50.5%	68.9%		45.71%
Bush	16	129	113	45	15		319
Pct	77.2%	56.7%	57.0%	49.5%	31.1%		54.29%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-55.2%	-18.5%	-0.9%	15.0%	65.2%		-1.15%
Kp-Bp	-45.2%	-12.4%	7.6%	20.9%	64.9%		5.15%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.29%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.97	17.48	26.04	8.78	6.53		59.81
Bush	2.90	22.69	26.23	7.19	2.18		61.19
Diff	-1.94	-5.21	-0.20	1.60	4.36		-1.39
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	1.06	17.60	28.12	9.66	7.18		63.61
Bush	2.81	22.58	24.15	6.32	1.53		57.39
Diff	-1.75	-4.98	3.96	3.34	5.66		6.23
							
	ALPHA MAXIMUM VOTE%
	alpha	Bush	Kerry				
	1.00	43.62	56.39				
	1.02	45.33	56.11				
	1.04	46.69	55.98				
	1.06	47.78	55.90				
	1.08	48.77	55.50				
	1.10	49.69	54.68				
	1.12	50.57	53.94				
	1.14	51.41	53.28				
							

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