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Reply #7: let me tell what people I know think [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-11-05 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. let me tell what people I know think

First of all, in the world outside, few if any people care what you or I think, so there is no point in arguing about whether the burden of proof is on me, on you, on E/M, or whatever.

It seems to me that the optimizer can (basically) tell you what certain numbers must be given other numbers, but it can't tell you whether the "certain numbers" are possible or not.

Now, it would be a nice world if I could tell you, "OK, you got me, I'm convinced" and every single public opinion analyst would go along with my change of mind. Or, for that matter, if you could tell me, "Yeah, you're right, rBr is possible," and every single DU member would agr-- OK, that's ridiculous, but at least refrain from trashing you for it. Not the case.

A lot of folks who work in polling or with polls believe deeply that polls can, do, and will go very wrong. The history of polling is the history of people learning from the ways in which polls have gone very wrong. The idea of response bias may seem contrived to you, but people who work with polls believe in it.

I guess what I have to say to you is that in my opinion, there isn't enough evidence in and about the exit polls to convince a typical "expert" that massive, decisive fraud is proven or even especially likely. Working with your optimizer would not persuade them.

I can stop saying this, but my silence will not change the fact. Whatever else one says about the latest USCV working paper, it has not taken the AAPOR world by storm. Some folks think the world would be different if a few of us would just stop posting, but it wouldn't.

One thing I would like you to know is that arguing, over and over, that I think Bush probably won the popular vote makes me miserable. Do you know the website That's how I feel. So, while you and I may find bits of fun in this, basically it is an utterly lousy experience for everyone.

The fact that we are even having a serious discussion about who won the 2004 election says to me that the country has a huge problem. If I thought I could fix the problem by pretending to be convinced of things I'm not, I would seriously consider it. For that matter, I probably kid myself that it matters if I say what I think. But I don't know what else to do.

See ya,
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