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QUANTS: To match WPE = - 6.77%, Optimizer needs wtd alpha >= 1.15 [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-10-05 12:30 PM
Original message
QUANTS: To match WPE = - 6.77%, Optimizer needs wtd alpha >= 1.15
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Edited on Fri Jun-10-05 01:22 PM by TruthIsAll
This will not make much sense to most of you.
It is for those familiar with the USCV analysis to ponder.

The model could not derive a feasible solution for
Mitofsky-supplied alpha = 1.12. It could only do so when alpha
was raised to 1.15. 

Th model derived alpha = 1.42 in High Bush precintcs. 
It was only 1.0 in High Kerry and evenly distbuted between
1.10 to 1.17 in the three middle partisanship groups.

What does this say about: 1) the model, 2) rBr?

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/10/05 1:34 PM							
							
OBJECTIVE:							
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive a
target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll
response data.							
							
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints: 							
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average							
2-Kerry 2-party win percentages							
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average							
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)							
							
OPTIMIZER TARGET VOTE (2-party)							
Kerry	48.77%						
Bush	51.23%						
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE RESPONSE							
Overall Rate	53.0%						
Alpha (K / B)	1.15						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	40%	60%	70%		
Max	25%	40%	60%	70%	100%		
							
EXIT POLL RESPONSE							
Min	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%		
Max	80%	80%	80%	80%	80%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
			EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION 				
	Percentage			Amounts (mm)			
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff 
Kerry	52.16%	48.77%	-3.39%		63.11	59.01	-4.10
Bush	47.84%	51.23%	3.39%		57.89	61.99	4.10
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		
Weight	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry	28.8%	42.6%	54.7%	63.6%	70.6%		52.16%
Bush	71.2%	57.4%	45.3%	36.4%	29.4%		47.84%
							
RESPONSE							
Total	48.0%	49.9%	53.6%	57.4%	57.8%		53.00%
WtdDev	-5.0%	-3.1%	0.6%	4.4%	4.8%		0%

ALPHA							
K/B	1.42	1.15	1.17	1.10	1.00		1.15
Dev	23.4%	0.4%	1.6%	-4.6%	-13.4%		0.00%

2-PARTY VOTE 							
Kerry	23.8%	39.6%	50.4%	60.7%	70.7%		48.77%
Bush	76.2%	60.4%	49.6%	39.3%	29.3%		51.23%
							
VOTES (mm)							
Kerry 	0.92	15.89	26.35	9.69	6.16		59.01
Bush	2.95	24.28	25.93	6.28	2.55		61.99
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
Diff	-2.03	-8.38	0.42	3.40	3.61		-2.98

EXIT POLL (mm)							
Kerry 	1.12	17.12	28.57	10.16	6.15		63.11
Bush	2.76	23.05	23.70	5.81	2.56		57.89
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
Diff	-1.64	-5.93	4.86	4.35	3.58		5.22
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	23.8%	39.6%	50.4%	60.7%	70.7%		48.77%
							
Kerry	10	164	272	100	64		610
Pct	23.8%	39.6%	50.4%	60.7%	70.7%		48.77%
Bush	30	251	268	65	26		640
Pct	76.2%	60.4%	49.6%	39.3%	29.3%		51.23%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.42	1.15	1.17	1.10	1.00		1.15
AvgDev	23%	0%	2%	-5%	-13%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	207	289	95	52		663
Pct	48.0%	49.9%	53.6%	57.4%	57.8%		53.00%
							
Kerry	6	88	158	60	37		349
Pct	28.8%	42.6%	54.7%	63.6%	70.6%		52.16%
Bush	14	119	131	34	15		314
Pct	71.2%	57.4%	45.3%	36.4%	29.4%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	208	251	70	38		587
Pct	52.0%	50.1%	46.4%	42.6%	42.2%		47.00%
							
Kerry	4	76	114	40	27		261
Pct	19.2%	36.5%	45.5%	56.7%	70.9%		44.98%
Bush	17	132	137	30	11		327
Pct	80.8%	63.5%	54.5%	43.3%	29.1%		55.02%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-52.3%	-20.9%	0.8%	21.3%	41.4%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-42.3%	-14.8%	9.3%	27.2%	41.1%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
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