This will not make much sense to most of you.
It is for those familiar with the USCV analysis to ponder.
The model could not derive a feasible solution for
Mitofsky-supplied alpha = 1.12. It could only do so when alpha
was raised to 1.15.
Th model derived alpha = 1.42 in High Bush precintcs.
It was only 1.0 in High Kerry and evenly distbuted between
1.10 to 1.17 in the three middle partisanship groups.
What does this say about: 1) the model, 2) rBr?
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL
6/10/05 1:34 PM
OBJECTIVE:
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive a
target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll
response data.
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average
2-Kerry 2-party win percentages
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average
4-WPE: input (optional: Min= Max= E-M)
OPTIMIZER TARGET VOTE (2-party)
Kerry 48.77%
Bush 51.23%
WEIGHTED AVERAGE RESPONSE
Overall Rate 53.0%
Alpha (K / B) 1.15
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS
1250 Strong Bush Strong Kerry
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90
KERRY WIN%
Min 0% 25% 40% 60% 70%
Max 25% 40% 60% 70% 100%
EXIT POLL RESPONSE
Min 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Max 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
ALPHA (K/B)
Min 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Max 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
WPE
E-M -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
Min -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
Max -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3%
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY
EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION
Percentage Amounts (mm)
Poll Vote Diff Poll Vote Diff
Kerry 52.16% 48.77% -3.39% 63.11 59.01 -4.10
Bush 47.84% 51.23% 3.39% 57.89 61.99 4.10
Categ. HighB Bush Even Kerry HighK Total/Avg
Number 40 415 540 165 90
Weight 3.2% 33.2% 43.2% 13.2% 7.2%
EXIT POLL
Kerry 28.8% 42.6% 54.7% 63.6% 70.6% 52.16%
Bush 71.2% 57.4% 45.3% 36.4% 29.4% 47.84%
RESPONSE
Total 48.0% 49.9% 53.6% 57.4% 57.8% 53.00%
WtdDev -5.0% -3.1% 0.6% 4.4% 4.8% 0%
ALPHA
K/B 1.42 1.15 1.17 1.10 1.00 1.15
Dev 23.4% 0.4% 1.6% -4.6% -13.4% 0.00%
2-PARTY VOTE
Kerry 23.8% 39.6% 50.4% 60.7% 70.7% 48.77%
Bush 76.2% 60.4% 49.6% 39.3% 29.3% 51.23%
VOTES (mm)
Kerry 0.92 15.89 26.35 9.69 6.16 59.01
Bush 2.95 24.28 25.93 6.28 2.55 61.99
TOTAL 3.87 40.17 52.27 15.97 8.71 121.00
Diff -2.03 -8.38 0.42 3.40 3.61 -2.98
EXIT POLL (mm)
Kerry 1.12 17.12 28.57 10.16 6.15 63.11
Bush 2.76 23.05 23.70 5.81 2.56 57.89
TOTAL 3.87 40.17 52.27 15.97 8.71 121.00
Diff -1.64 -5.93 4.86 4.35 3.58 5.22
WPE -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
E-M -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
Diff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
OPTIMIZATION MODEL
Categ. HighB Bush Even Kerry HighK Total/Avg
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90 1250
Kerry 23.8% 39.6% 50.4% 60.7% 70.7% 48.77%
Kerry 10 164 272 100 64 610
Pct 23.8% 39.6% 50.4% 60.7% 70.7% 48.77%
Bush 30 251 268 65 26 640
Pct 76.2% 60.4% 49.6% 39.3% 29.3% 51.23%
ALPHA
K/B 1.42 1.15 1.17 1.10 1.00 1.15
AvgDev 23% 0% 2% -5% -13% 0%
RESPONDERS
Total 19 207 289 95 52 663
Pct 48.0% 49.9% 53.6% 57.4% 57.8% 53.00%
Kerry 6 88 158 60 37 349
Pct 28.8% 42.6% 54.7% 63.6% 70.6% 52.16%
Bush 14 119 131 34 15 314
Pct 71.2% 57.4% 45.3% 36.4% 29.4% 47.84%
REFUSERS
Total 21 208 251 70 38 587
Pct 52.0% 50.1% 46.4% 42.6% 42.2% 47.00%
Kerry 4 76 114 40 27 261
Pct 19.2% 36.5% 45.5% 56.7% 70.9% 44.98%
Bush 17 132 137 30 11 327
Pct 80.8% 63.5% 54.5% 43.3% 29.1% 55.02%
WPE
Kv-Bv -52.3% -20.9% 0.8% 21.3% 41.4% -2.46%
Kp-Bp -42.3% -14.8% 9.3% 27.2% 41.1% 4.31%
WPE -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
E-M WPE -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%